Will “Supreme Court” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Supreme Court” was said at the White House press briefing on 4 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 22, 2025 (18%), most recently on Jan 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 18% (n=22, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Supreme Court
- Probability
- 18% · n=22
- Settled
- 4/22 (18%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Hey, thanks so much. Oh, sorry. Does the Supreme Court's ruling on the mail in ballot executive order present an obstacle to future ballot fraud…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…growing up since grammar school there are nine justices on the US Supreme Court. How long does it stay that way based on what happened…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 25 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Supreme Court |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Supreme Court |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 22, 2025 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often is “Supreme Court” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Supreme Court” was said at the White House press briefing on 4 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 22, 2025 (18%), most recently on Jan 15, 2026.
- What is the probability “Supreme Court” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 18%, from settlement history (n=22). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Supreme Court’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/supreme-court (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=supreme%20court · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP