Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said at the White House press briefing on 9 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (60%), most recently on Apr 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 45% · n=15
- Settled
- 9/15 (60%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…him following up with action to say that, if you're going to shut down an American factory and put an American worker out of a…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…we would have hoped, but that's because of the Democrats decision to shut down DHS for several weeks. So we expect to fully execute on…
…you could provide a little more detail on what you're doing to shut down Iran's airlines. And also, on sanctions relief, a senior administration official…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut down | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 15 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 17 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 18 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
Questions
- How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said at the White House press briefing on 9 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (60%), most recently on Apr 27, 2026.
- What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP