White House press briefing, May 1, 2026
Polymarket What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Markets
23 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: role: press secretary Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| President 66+ times | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| President 55+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Despicable / Disgusting | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Very clear | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FED / Chair | Yes | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Commander-in-Chief | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Death to America | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gas / Gallon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 45%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Go ahead 5+ times | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Diplomatic / Diplomacy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Insult / Insulting | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Military operation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palestine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Successful | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pete / Hegseth | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Joe Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | 29%n=28 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-the-next-white-house-press-briefing-472 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP