Will “Big Beautiful Bill” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Big Beautiful Bill” was said at the White House press briefing on 8 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 20, 2025 (73%), most recently on Jul 31, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Big Beautiful Bill
- Probability
- 38% · n=11
- Settled
- 8/11 (73%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Parenthood will resume July 4th unless Congress acts to extend the One Big, Beautiful Bill. As CMS administrator, what's your message to Congress on that?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…like we were ready six months in advance for the One Big, Beautiful Bill for tax guidance. So, we have to prepare in advance; you…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| May 29, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 15 |
| May 22, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| May 20, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “Big Beautiful Bill” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Big Beautiful Bill” was said at the White House press briefing on 8 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 20, 2025 (73%), most recently on Jul 31, 2025.
- What is the probability “Big Beautiful Bill” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/big-beautiful-bill (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=big%20beautiful%20bill · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP