White House press briefing, May 19, 2026
Polymarket What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing?
Markets
25 words · 15 settled yes- Polymarket: role: press secretary Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Congress | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 53%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Administration 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Go ahead 5+ times | Yes | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| President 30+ times | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal / Illegals | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mother | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President 40+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thing 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Xi / Jinping | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Baby | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Strait | No | 61%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Commander in Chief | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Congratulations | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Madness | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pink | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spanish | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Virus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Alien | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| CDC / WHO | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico | No | 33%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-the-press-secretary-say-during-the-next-white-house-press-briefing · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP