Will “Hormuz” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hormuz” was said at the White House press briefing on 7 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 4, 2026 (78%), most recently on Apr 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 7/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Hormuz
- Probability
- 46% · n=9
- Settled
- 7/9 (78%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…through. We got about 15 million barrels out of the Strait of Hormuz just yesterday, despite the fact that the Iranians continue to ship --…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…were not to fire on commercial vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz. And unfortunately, they have made the tragic decision for them to do…
…Last night, 12.5 million barrels of oil went through the Strait of Hormuz; that is a high since the beginning of the conflict. Oil prices…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…to see the disruption of the oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz affect economic data. You know, first, is there a deal on the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Hormuz |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Hormuz |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Hormuz | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Hormuz | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often is “Hormuz” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hormuz” was said at the White House press briefing on 7 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 4, 2026 (78%), most recently on Apr 27, 2026.
- What is the probability “Hormuz” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP