Will “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist” was said at the White House press briefing on 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (44%), most recently on Mar 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Terrorist / Narcoterrorist
- Probability
- 46% · n=9
- Settled
- 4/9 (44%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…arrests related to FTOs, including 1,039 individuals prevented from carrying out alleged terrorist attacks. That's 38 percent increase from the last administration. I want to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…work of our troops, we would have had an energy crisis because the Iranians refused to stop acting like terrorists in the Strait of Hormuz.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…are a fragmented system. They are not the once very strong, powerful terrorist state that they were before this operation, which was one of the…
…we're going to be able to see if they try to fund terrorist organizations, we're going to be able to see that. But you said…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist |  Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Kalshi | Yes | 20 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist” was said at the White House press briefing on 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (44%), most recently on Mar 10, 2026.
- What is the probability “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Terrorist / Narcoterrorist’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/narcoterrorist-or-terrorist (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=narcoterrorist%20%2F%20terrorist · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP