Will “Stock Market” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Stock Market” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (8%), most recently on May 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Stock Market
- Probability
- 21% · n=24
- Settled
- 2/24 (8%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…have more confidence, or it could be something else. Because, for instance, stock market gains or 401(k) gains might not show up in savings so…
…Americans, that maybe don't have the financial expertise when it comes to stock markets and investing in general. In what ways do you -- are…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 24 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Stock Market |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 28, 2026 | Stock Market |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Stock Market | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Stock Market” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Stock Market” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (8%), most recently on May 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “Stock Market” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Stock Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/stock-market (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=stock%20market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP