Will “Election / Midterm” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election / Midterm” was said at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 13, 2026.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
- Market
- 39¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Election / Midterm
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Counts: role: press secretary
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…you as well, especially as we are in the middle of the midterm blitz, with energy and excitement never seen before in the history of…
Absolutely you can expect more of the midterm blitz. Just now we've added Kentucky, and we have a few other stops as he goes down…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Election / Midterm |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often is “Election / Midterm” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election / Midterm” was said at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 13, 2026.
- What is the probability “Election / Midterm” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Election / Midterm’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/election-or-midterm (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=election%20%2F%20midterm · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP