Will “Iran” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said at the White House press briefing on 11 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 25, 2025 (69%), most recently on Apr 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 60% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
- Market
- 45¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Iran
- Probability
- 60% · n=16
- Settled
- 11/16 (69%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
I'd like to ask you about the Iran war and about Anthony Fauci. On the Iran war, Congressman Thomas Massie today introduced articles of impeachment…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…to remember why are we doing this. Number one, it's so that Iran never has a nuclear weapon. And number two, what we're doing right…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…you one other question? Just playing devil's advocate, why does Saudi Arabia get a civilian nuclear deal but Iran doesn't get a civilian nuclear deal?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…never targets civilians or children, unlike the other side of this conflict, Iran, who is well-known for killing women and children and innocent people in…
…the bat. First of all, I think the president's peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people. Last night, 12.5…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Iran |  Kalshi | Yes | 28 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 22 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 31 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Iran |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 14 |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 19 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Iran | Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Iran” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said at the White House press briefing on 11 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 25, 2025 (69%), most recently on Apr 8, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 60%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP