Donald Trump: Announcement, Oct 7, 2026
In remarks on Oct 7, 2026, Donald Trump said 10 of the 27 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
27 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 62%n=201 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 61%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 59%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 57%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 57%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=371 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 55%n=257 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 41%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 39%n=196 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | 22%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 61%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | No | 56%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Japan / Japanese | No | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 49%n=355 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 48%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 46%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 43%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Super Intelligence | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 42%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | 41%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 41%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 35%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 32%n=271 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 31%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 24%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 23%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=522 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 18, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-07:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-07:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP