Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 15, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Mexican Border Defense Medal Presentation on December 15?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff 3+ times | Yes | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Kash / FBI | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Thank you / Please 13+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tren de Aragua | Yes | 33%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | Yes | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 28%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico / Mexican 5+ times | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drug Boat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala | No | 39%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Texas | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | 30%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | No | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=205 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-mexican-border-defense-medal-presentation-on-december-15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP