Donald Trump: Rally in Oklahoma, Oct 1, 2026
At the rally on Oct 1, 2026, Donald Trump said 22 of the 41 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
41 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Save America Act | Yes | 59%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 51%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 50%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Job 15+ times | Yes | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Income Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell | Yes | 48%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 47%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Reagan | Yes | 46%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 45%n=239 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 44%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 44%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Budget | Yes | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 41%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Aluminum | Yes | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 40%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 38%n=193 from settlement history | – |
| Paxton / Talarico | Yes | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 36%n=179 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 28%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 24%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 23%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Smelter | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 49%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Lumber | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 45%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Executive Order | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 41%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 41%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 37%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 36%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 31%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 28%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 21%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 15%n=265 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 13%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 12%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 8%n=516 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-01:rally-oklahoma · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-01:rally-oklahoma · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP