Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 7, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Carney events on October 7?
Markets
44 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 80%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 67%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 62%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 59%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 58%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 56%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | Yes | 51%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | Yes | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 44%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Governor | Yes | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Water | Yes | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | Yes | 35%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Car / Automobile | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 7+ times | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 29%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Seven wars | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire 3+ times | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | No | 46%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| USMCA / United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trudeau | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | No | 42%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | No | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Export | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wayne / Gretzky | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 51st state | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 51st / Fifty First | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Lumber | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NAFTA | No | 33%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 32%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 32%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 29%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=130 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP