Donald Trump: Interview, May 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Fox News interview?
Markets
23 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 67%n=140 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 63%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 59%n=248 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 53%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 51%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 50%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 49%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Soybean | Yes | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 46%n=226 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Maduro | Yes | 46%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Jensen / Cook | Yes | 41%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Boeing / Plane | Yes | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 35%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 42%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 40%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 34%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 33%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 33%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 9%n=364 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP