Will Donald Trump say “Hezbollah”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hezbollah” at 3 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 23, 2024 (27%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hezbollah
- Probability
- 38% · n=11
- Settled
- 3/11 (27%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Hezbollah |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Hezbollah |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Hezbollah | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Hezbollah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Hezbollah | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Hezbollah | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Hezbollah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Hezbollah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Hezbollah | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Hezbollah | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Hezbollah | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hezbollah”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hezbollah” at 3 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 23, 2024 (27%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hezbollah” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hezbollah’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hezbollah (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hezbollah · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP