Will Donald Trump say “Big Beautiful Bill”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Big Beautiful Bill” at 33 of 49 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2025 (67%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=49, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Big Beautiful Bill
- Probability
- 57% · n=49
- Settled
- 33/49 (67%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the world. And with our Republican Congress, I signed the great big beautiful bill delivering the largest tax cuts in American history. I did it…
…signed the largest tax cuts in American history with the great big beautiful bill including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no…
…signed the largest tax cuts in American history with a great big beautiful bill, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on…
Every settled listing
newest first · 55 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 18, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 4, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 4, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 1, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Big beautiful bill | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Big beautiful bill | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Big beautiful bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Big beautiful bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Big beautiful bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Big beautiful bill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Big Beautiful Bill”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Big Beautiful Bill” at 33 of 49 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2025 (67%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Big Beautiful Bill” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=49). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/big-beautiful-bill (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=big%20beautiful%20bill · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP