Will Donald Trump say “Fed / Federal Reserve”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fed / Federal Reserve” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 5, 2025 (33%), most recently on May 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fed / Federal Reserve
- Probability
- 34% · n=9
- Settled
- 3/9 (33%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve |  Polymarket | No | – |
| May 31, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FED / Federal Reserve | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Federal Reserve / Fed |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fed / Federal Reserve”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fed / Federal Reserve” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 5, 2025 (33%), most recently on May 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fed / Federal Reserve” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fed / Federal Reserve’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fed-or-federal-reserve (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fed%20%2F%20federal%20reserve · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP