Will Donald Trump say “Farmer”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Farmer” at 12 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (52%), most recently on Aug 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=23, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

57%from settlement history only · n=23counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes no no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Farmer

Probability
57% · n=23
Settled
12/23 (52%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 2:35In transcript

…very much. I love this place. USA. I know you're not all farmers, but I love farmers. I don't care. I don't care. And we're…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 24 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Aug 24, 2026FarmerPolymarketYes
Jul 29, 2026FarmerPolymarketYes
May 14, 2026FarmerPolymarketNo
May 14, 2026FarmerKalshiNo
May 12, 2026FarmerKalshiNo
May 4, 2026FarmerPolymarketYes
Apr 27, 2026FarmerPolymarketNo
Apr 16, 2026FarmerPolymarketYes
Apr 16, 2026FarmerKalshiYes
Apr 6, 2026FarmerPolymarketYes
Jan 28, 2026FarmerKalshiNo
Jan 28, 2026FarmerKalshiYes
Jan 17, 2026FarmerKalshiNo
Jan 15, 2026FarmerKalshiYes
Dec 19, 2025FarmerPolymarketYes
Nov 25, 2025FarmerPolymarketYes
Oct 30, 2025FarmerKalshiNo
Oct 29, 2025FarmerPolymarketNo
Oct 28, 2025FarmerKalshiNo
Oct 27, 2025FarmerKalshiNo
Oct 7, 2025FarmerPolymarketYes
Jul 3, 2025FarmerPolymarketYes
May 6, 2025FarmerPolymarketNo
Apr 2, 2025FarmerPolymarketYes

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Farmer”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Farmer” at 12 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (52%), most recently on Aug 24, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Farmer” next time?
57%, from settlement history (n=23). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Farmer’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/farmer (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=farmer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP