Will Donald Trump say “Deficit”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deficit” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (29%), most recently on May 6, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Deficit
- Probability
- 31% · n=7
- Settled
- 2/7 (29%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…yours is going to go down. They gave us the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across our…
…American history, the highest energy prices in American history, the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across our…
…challenges that you have systemically tackled and solved, whether it's the trade deficit, where we were getting ripped off by foreign countries, whether it's welfare…
…And by the way, this is two years ago, the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across our…
Absolutely, a tremendous difference. Yeah, we're looking at it very closely, the deficit. And you know, I'm cutting back the deficit with these countries where…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Deficit |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Deficit | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Deficit | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Deficit | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 6, 2025 | Deficit | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Deficit | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Deficit | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Deficit”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deficit” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (29%), most recently on May 6, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Deficit” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Deficit’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/deficit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=deficit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP