Kevin Warsh
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 163 word markets on Kevin Warsh’s appearances since 2026, on 92 different words; most reliably said: “Productivity” (5 of 5).
History Wall
1–40 of 99, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Apr 21hearing | May 22speech | Jul 1keynote | Jul 14hearing | Aug 28remarks | Oct 15latest | Last 6 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 21 hearing | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 22 speech | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 1 keynote | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 28 remarks | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 15 panel | 5/683% | 5/683% | 72%n=6 from settlement history |
| Trump | Settled yes: Trump, Apr 21 hearing | Settled no: Trump, May 22 speech | Settled no: Trump, Jul 1 keynote | Settled no: Trump, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Trump, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Trump, Oct 15 panel | 1/617% | 1/617% | 18%n=6 from settlement history |
| Productivityevery time | Settled yes: Productivity, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Productivity, May 22 speech | Settled yes: Productivity, Jul 1 keynote | Settled yes: Productivity, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: Productivity, Aug 28 remarks | Settled yes: Productivity, Oct 15 panel | 5/5100% | 5/5100% | 75%n=5 from settlement history |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, May 22 speech | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Jul 1 keynote | Settled yes: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Oct 15 panel | 1/520% | 1/520% | 21%n=5 from settlement history |
| Recessionnever said | Settled no: Recession, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Recession, May 22 speech | Settled no: Recession, Jul 1 keynote | Settled no: Recession, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Recession, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Recession, Oct 15 panel | 0/50% | 0/50% | 14%n=5 from settlement history |
| Tariffnever said | Settled no: Tariff, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Tariff, May 22 speech | Settled no: Tariff, Jul 1 keynote | Settled no: Tariff, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Tariff, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Tariff, Oct 15 panel | 0/50% | 0/50% | 14%n=5 from settlement history |
| Rate Cut / Cut Rate | Settled yes: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, May 22 speech | Settled no: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Jul 1 keynote | Settled no: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Rate Cut / Cut Rate, Oct 15 panel | 1/425% | 1/425% | 21%n=4 from settlement history |
| Powell | Settled yes: Powell, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Powell, May 22 speech | Settled no: Powell, Jul 1 keynote | Settled no: Powell, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Powell, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Powell, Oct 15 panel | 1/425% | 1/425% | 21%n=4 from settlement history |
| Oilnever said | Settled no: Oil, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Oil, May 22 speech | Settled no: Oil, Jul 1 keynote | Settled no: Oil, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Oil, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Oil, Oct 15 panel | 0/40% | 0/40% | 15%n=4 from settlement history |
| Stablecoinnever said | Not listed: Stablecoin, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Stablecoin, May 22 speech | Settled no: Stablecoin, Jul 1 keynote | Settled no: Stablecoin, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Stablecoin, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Stablecoin, Oct 15 panel | 0/40% | 0/40% | 15%n=4 from settlement history |
| 2008 / Financial Crisis | Settled yes: 2008 / Financial Crisis, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: 2008 / Financial Crisis, May 22 speech | Not listed: 2008 / Financial Crisis, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: 2008 / Financial Crisis, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: 2008 / Financial Crisis, Aug 28 remarks | Settled yes: 2008 / Financial Crisis, Oct 15 panel | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 71%n=3 from settlement history |
| Inflation | Settled yes: Inflation, Apr 21 hearing | Settled yes: Inflation, May 22 speech | Not listed: Inflation, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Inflation, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: Inflation, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 15 panel | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 68%n=3 from settlement history |
| Independent / Independence | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Apr 21 hearing | Settled yes: Independent / Independence, May 22 speech | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Independent / Independence, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Independent / Independence, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Independent / Independence, Oct 15 panel | 1/333% | 1/333% | 24%n=3 from settlement history |
| Challenge | Not listed: Challenge, Apr 21 hearing | Settled yes: Challenge, May 22 speech | Not listed: Challenge, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Challenge, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: Challenge, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Challenge, Oct 15 panel | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 72%n=2 from settlement history |
| Price Stability / Stable Price | Not listed: Price Stability / Stable Price, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Price Stability / Stable Price, May 22 speech | Not listed: Price Stability / Stable Price, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Price Stability / Stable Price, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: Price Stability / Stable Price, Aug 28 remarks | Settled yes: Price Stability / Stable Price, Oct 15 panel | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 68%n=2 from settlement history |
| Resilient / Resilience | Not listed: Resilient / Resilience, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Resilient / Resilience, May 22 speech | Not listed: Resilient / Resilience, Jul 1 keynote | Settled yes: Resilient / Resilience, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Resilient / Resilience, Aug 28 remarks | Settled yes: Resilient / Resilience, Oct 15 panel | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 68%n=2 from settlement history |
| Task Force | Not listed: Task Force, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Task Force, May 22 speech | Not listed: Task Force, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Task Force, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: Task Force, Aug 28 remarks | Settled yes: Task Force, Oct 15 panel | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 68%n=2 from settlement history |
| Forward Guidance | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Forward Guidance, May 22 speech | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: Forward Guidance, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Forward Guidance, Oct 15 panel | 1/250% | 1/250% | 28%n=2 from settlement history |
| Interest rate | Settled yes: Interest rate, Apr 21 hearing | Settled no: Interest rate, May 22 speech | Not listed: Interest rate, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Interest rate, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Interest rate, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Interest rate, Oct 15 panel | 1/250% | 1/250% | 30%n=2 from settlement history |
| Layoff | Not listed: Layoff, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Layoff, May 22 speech | Not listed: Layoff, Jul 1 keynote | Settled yes: Layoff, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Layoff, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Layoff, Oct 15 panel | 1/250% | 1/250% | 27%n=2 from settlement history |
| Balance Sheet | Not listed: Balance Sheet, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Balance Sheet, May 22 speech | Not listed: Balance Sheet, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Balance Sheet, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Balance Sheet, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Balance Sheet, Oct 15 panel | 0/20% | 0/20% | 19%n=2 from settlement history |
| Deflation / Deflationary | Not listed: Deflation / Deflationary, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Deflation / Deflationary, May 22 speech | Settled no: Deflation / Deflationary, Jul 1 keynote | Settled no: Deflation / Deflationary, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Deflation / Deflationary, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Deflation / Deflationary, Oct 15 panel | 0/20% | 0/20% | 22%n=2 from settlement history |
| Rate Hike / Hike Rate | Not listed: Rate Hike / Hike Rate, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Rate Hike / Hike Rate, May 22 speech | Not listed: Rate Hike / Hike Rate, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Rate Hike / Hike Rate, Jul 14 hearing | Settled no: Rate Hike / Hike Rate, Aug 28 remarks | Settled no: Rate Hike / Hike Rate, Oct 15 panel | 0/20% | 0/20% | 19%n=2 from settlement history |
| Iran | Settled no: Iran, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Iran, May 22 speech | Settled no: Iran, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Iran, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Iran, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Iran, Oct 15 panel | 0/20% | 0/20% | 20%n=2 from settlement history |
| Renovation | Settled no: Renovation, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Renovation, May 22 speech | Not listed: Renovation, Jul 1 keynote | Settled no: Renovation, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Renovation, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Renovation, Oct 15 panel | 0/20% | 0/20% | 18%n=2 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence3+ times | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, May 22 speech | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| America / American2+ times | Not listed: America / American 2+ times, Apr 21 hearing | Settled yes: America / American 2+ times, May 22 speech | Not listed: America / American 2+ times, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: America / American 2+ times, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: America / American 2+ times, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: America / American 2+ times, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bank / Asset10+ times | Not listed: Bank / Asset 10+ times, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Bank / Asset 10+ times, May 22 speech | Not listed: Bank / Asset 10+ times, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Bank / Asset 10+ times, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: Bank / Asset 10+ times, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Bank / Asset 10+ times, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bessent | Settled yes: Bessent, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Bessent, May 22 speech | Not listed: Bessent, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Bessent, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Bessent, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Bessent, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| CapEx / Capital Expenditure | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, May 22 speech | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: CapEx / Capital Expenditure, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Constitution | Settled yes: Constitution, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Constitution, May 22 speech | Not listed: Constitution, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Constitution, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Constitution, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Constitution, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Data | Not listed: Data, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Data, May 22 speech | Settled yes: Data, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Data, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Data, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Data, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Wife / Family | Not listed: Wife / Family, Apr 21 hearing | Settled yes: Wife / Family, May 22 speech | Not listed: Wife / Family, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Wife / Family, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Wife / Family, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Wife / Family, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fed | Not listed: Fed, Apr 21 hearing | Settled yes: Fed, May 22 speech | Not listed: Fed, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Fed, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Fed, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Fed, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fed10+ times | Settled yes: Fed 10+ times, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Fed 10+ times, May 22 speech | Not listed: Fed 10+ times, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Fed 10+ times, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Fed 10+ times, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Fed 10+ times, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Global | Settled yes: Global, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Global, May 22 speech | Not listed: Global, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Global, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Global, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Global, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Good Morning | Not listed: Good Morning, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Good Morning, May 22 speech | Not listed: Good Morning, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Good Morning, Jul 14 hearing | Settled yes: Good Morning, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Good Morning, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Raise / Hike | Not listed: Raise / Hike, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Raise / Hike, May 22 speech | Not listed: Raise / Hike, Jul 1 keynote | Settled yes: Raise / Hike, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Raise / Hike, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Raise / Hike, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Honor | Not listed: Honor, Apr 21 hearing | Settled yes: Honor, May 22 speech | Not listed: Honor, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Honor, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Honor, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Honor, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Independence | Settled yes: Independence, Apr 21 hearing | Not listed: Independence, May 22 speech | Not listed: Independence, Jul 1 keynote | Not listed: Independence, Jul 14 hearing | Not listed: Independence, Aug 28 remarks | Not listed: Independence, Oct 15 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 6Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | PanelWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his fireside chat with International Monetary Fund? | no transcript | 20 | 6 yes · 14 no | – |
| Aug 28, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks? | no transcript | 51 | 15 yes · 36 no | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | HearingWhat will Kevin Warsh say during the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report? | no transcript | 21 | 7 yes · 14 no | – |
| Jul 1, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his ECB discussion? | no transcript | 16 | 4 yes · 12 no | – |
| May 22, 2026 | SpeechWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his Swearing-In? | no transcript | 24 | 9 yes · 15 no | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | HearingWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his Senate Confirmation Hearing? | no transcript | 36 | 20 yes · 16 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/kevin-warsh · words: /api/v1/history?entity=kevin-warsh · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP