Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida, Oct 23, 2026
At the rally on Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said 29 of the 56 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 54 of 56 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
56 words · 29 settled yes · our count agreed on 54 of 56- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat 5+ times | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 6+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 15 | 15 | ✓ | 59%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times | Yes | 15 | 18 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 68%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal 5+ times | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 55%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 54%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender 5+ times | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 77%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 70%n=250 from settlement history | – |
| Ilhan / Omar | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 59%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – | |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 48%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 28%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 64%n=193 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 60%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Mar-a-Lago / Golf | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 69%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 61%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 90%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 64%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Blockade | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 46%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 41%n=346 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 58%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 44%n=188 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 37%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 44%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times | No | 18 | 18 | ✓ | 44%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 15+ times | No | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 5 | 6 | ✗ | 49%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 12%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Space / Moon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Jacksonville | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Artemis | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Space Force | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Fish / Fisher / Fishing | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Veteran | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=117 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hurricane | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=273 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 20%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 7%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 6%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 4%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 4%n=528 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 23, 2026 22:49 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · RSBN (YouTube auto-captions) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
9 matches for “Nuclear”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…a little bit. Small price to pay, but we took out the nuclear power from Iran cuz yours is going to go down. They gave…
…a week. And in Iran, I terminated the Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal, one of the worst deals ever made, which
…it's done done a while ago that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. It's all about that. It's all about that. Oil prices will…
…I saw Marco, I saw JD, I saw everybody. We had a meeting and I said, "We got to stop Iran from having a nuclear
…the following day, but we have to stop these lunatics from having nuclear weapons." And we have done that. And uh it's something that's very…
Where the listed words were said
…the United States Senate. And we're going to defeat the radical left Democrats all across the country. And we're going to win a Republican House…
…more now because we're a little longer than that. Thanks to my tariffs, my favorite word, I have to tell you. But no longer. It's…
…doing very well. You have no idea how well we're doing with Iran. Iran is finished. Iran is finished. But think of it. But I…
…media. You know, I was telling him the other night I imitated Biden on the stage where he used to walk off walls and could…
…our country. You settle eight wars. You stop India and Pakistan. Two nuclear. You stop them there. I did on trade. I said fellas, if…
…illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent criminals to rob, rape, and kill. Why can't I have a candidate like…
they stopped the war probably should do that immediately with Ukraine and Russia I've never thought of I didn't think of it but we don't…
…to support an important industry here in the shores of the Gulf of America. How do we like the Gulf of America? the Gulf. That's…
…sponsor of a bill to let schools turn children, all of them transgender if they want, without parental without parental consent. I would say she's…
…your guns. He wants to open the borders. He wants to have transgender for everybody. It's a guy who's gone. There's something actually, if you…
…my favorite Congress people, a person I have tremendous respect for, Elhan Omar. And I was saddened to hear that Elon Omar is not her…
…I have an unbelievable one of the great five legs. Canada is not Canada is not thrilled with that one. I called up Google map.
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