Will Donald Trump say “Insurance”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Insurance” at 3 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 7, 2025 (30%), most recently on May 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Insurance
- Probability
- 33% · n=10
- Settled
- 3/10 (30%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…governor, this state is going to be affordable. We're going to lower insurance. We're going to lower taxes. Florida will always be the greatest state…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Insurance |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Insurance |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Insurance | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Insurance | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Insurance | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Insurance | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 18, 2026 | Insurance | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 18, 2026 | Insurance | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Insurance | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Insurance | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Insurance | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Insurance | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Insurance | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Insurance | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Insurance”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Insurance” at 3 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 7, 2025 (30%), most recently on May 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Insurance” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Insurance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/insurance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=insurance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP