Will Donald Trump say “Transgender” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Transgender” 5+ times at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 13, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 79% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Transgender 5+ times
- Probability
- 79% · n=6
- Settled
- 6/6 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
6 counted.
…sponsor of a bill to let schools turn children, all of them transgender if they want, without parental without parental consent. I would say she's…
…your guns. He wants to open the borders. He wants to have transgender for everybody. It's a guy who's gone. There's something actually, if you…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Transgender 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Transgender 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Transgender 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Transgender 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Transgender 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Transgender 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Transgender 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Transgender” 5+ times at 6 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 13, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Transgender 5+ times” next time?
- 79%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Transgender 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/transgender-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=transgender%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP