Will Donald Trump say “Ilhan / Omar”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ilhan / Omar” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2026 (83%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ilhan / Omar
- Probability
- 65% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
6 counted.
…my favorite Congress people, a person I have tremendous respect for, Elhan Omar. And I was saddened to hear that Elon Omar is not her…
…that the Democrat party has just conceded the seat of the former Ilhan Omar from from the lovely country of Somalia from the lovely country…
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted.
…moderate. So he can go vote with extremists like Abdul Muhammad Aliad. They can be together. and James Telerico and oh no Elon Omar B.
…much breaking news, but one of them had to do with Elon Omar. It was just revealed. But listen, because I don't think even you…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Ilhan / Omar |  Kalshi | Yes | 19 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Ilhan / Omar | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Ilhan / Omar | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Ilhan / Omar | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Ilhan / Omar | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Ilhan / Omar |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ilhan / Omar”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ilhan / Omar” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 30, 2026 (83%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ilhan / Omar” next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ilhan / Omar’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ilhan-or-omar (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ilhan%20%2F%20omar · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP