Will Donald Trump say “Crime / Criminal” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crime / Criminal” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 23, 2026.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Crime / Criminal 5+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
9 counted; 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent criminals to rob, rape, and kill. Why can't I have a candidate like…
…Donald's will keep the state a sanctuary for law-abiding Americans, not vicious criminal aliens. Look at these two guys. Stand up. We I haven't seen…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Crime / Criminal 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 9 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Crime / Criminal 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crime / Criminal” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Crime / Criminal 5+ times” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Crime / Criminal 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crime-or-criminal-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crime%20%2F%20criminal%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP