Wed, Oct 28, 2026

Mention markets on this date, across every hub.

14 eventsData updated Oct 23, 2026, 22:21 UTC· Source: Kalshi, Polymarket, transcripts

Listed words

K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: mid prices, up to about 20 minutes old. Not advice.

earnings: times said on each call
other hubs: said / not said on each settled listing
no appearance
chance it is said next time

Wed, Oct 28

14 events

WINGWingstop

Before open

WING: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	FY24 Q3	FY24 Q4	FY25 Q1	FY25 Q2	FY25 Q3	FY25 Q4	FY26 Q1	FY26 Q2	Chance next call: probability
DeliveryK 90¢	Delivery: 2 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Delivery: 1 time, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Delivery: 8 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Delivery: 10 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Delivery: 3 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Delivery: 12 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Delivery: 8 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Delivery: 1 time, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	93% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Smart Kitchen3+K 92¢	Smart Kitchen: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Smart Kitchen: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Smart Kitchen: 11 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Smart Kitchen: 32 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Smart Kitchen: 22 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Smart Kitchen: 20 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Smart Kitchen: 14 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Smart Kitchen: 10 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	84% from transcript model
AIK 68¢	AI: 1 time, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	AI: 2 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	AI: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	AI: 0 times, FY25 Q2	AI: 0 times, FY25 Q3	AI: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	AI: 2 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	AI: 1 time, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	69% from settlement history blended with transcripts
World CupK 60¢	World Cup: 0 times, FY24 Q3	World Cup: 0 times, FY24 Q4	World Cup: 0 times, FY25 Q1	World Cup: 0 times, FY25 Q2	World Cup: 0 times, FY25 Q3	World Cup: 2 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	World Cup: 0 times, FY26 Q1	World Cup: 6 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	69% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Club Wingstop3+K 90¢	Club Wingstop: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Club Wingstop: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Club Wingstop: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Club Wingstop: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Club Wingstop: 3 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Club Wingstop: 5 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Club Wingstop: 7 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Club Wingstop: 15 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	68% from transcript model
TenderK 52¢	Tender: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Tender: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Tender: 18 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Tender: 15 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Tender: 4 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Tender: 2 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Tender: 3 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Tender: 0 times, FY26 Q2	63% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+10 more words Last call · Jul 29, 2026

Prime Minister's QuestionsWeekly session

8:00 am ET

Prime Minister's Questions: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
UkraineK 71¢	Ukraine: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Ukraine: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Ukraine: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Ukraine: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Ukraine: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Ukraine: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Ukraine: said, 1 listing before the last	Ukraine: said, the last settled listing	67% from settlement history
BenefitK 72¢	Benefit: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Benefit: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Benefit: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Benefit: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Benefit: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Benefit: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Benefit: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Benefit: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
EUK 24¢	EU: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	EU: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	EU: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	EU: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	EU: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	EU: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	EU: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	EU: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
EnergyK 50¢	Energy: said, 7 listings before the last	Energy: said, 6 listings before the last	Energy: said, 5 listings before the last	Energy: not said, 4 listings before the last	Energy: not said, 3 listings before the last	Energy: said, 2 listings before the last	Energy: not said, 1 listing before the last	Energy: said, the last settled listing	55% from settlement history
IranK 24¢	Iran: said, 7 listings before the last	Iran: not said, 6 listings before the last	Iran: said, 5 listings before the last	Iran: not said, 4 listings before the last	Iran: not said, 3 listings before the last	Iran: not said, 2 listings before the last	Iran: said, 1 listing before the last	Iran: said, the last settled listing	54% from settlement history
BudgetK 78¢	Budget: said, 7 listings before the last	Budget: said, 6 listings before the last	Budget: said, 5 listings before the last	Budget: said, 4 listings before the last	Budget: said, 3 listings before the last	Budget: not said, 2 listings before the last	Budget: said, 1 listing before the last	Budget: said, the last settled listing	53% from settlement history

Kalshi+10 more words Last transcript · Oct 21, 2026

FOMC press conferenceOctober press conference

2:30 pm ET

FOMC press conference: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
RestrictiveK 80¢	Restrictive: said, 7 listings before the last	Restrictive: said, 6 listings before the last	Restrictive: said, 5 listings before the last	Restrictive: said, 4 listings before the last	Restrictive: said, 3 listings before the last	Restrictive: said, 2 listings before the last	Restrictive: said, 1 listing before the last	Restrictive: said, the last settled listing	91% from settlement history
UncertaintyK 78¢	Uncertainty: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Uncertainty: said, 6 listings before the last	Uncertainty: said, 5 listings before the last	Uncertainty: said, 4 listings before the last	Uncertainty: said, 3 listings before the last	Uncertainty: said, 2 listings before the last	Uncertainty: said, 1 listing before the last	Uncertainty: said, the last settled listing	87% from settlement history
Central BankK 94¢	Central Bank: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Central Bank: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Central Bank: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Central Bank: said, 4 listings before the last	Central Bank: said, 3 listings before the last	Central Bank: said, 2 listings before the last	Central Bank: said, 1 listing before the last	Central Bank: said, the last settled listing	85% from settlement history
ShockK 80¢	Shock: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Shock: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Shock: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Shock: said, 4 listings before the last	Shock: said, 3 listings before the last	Shock: said, 2 listings before the last	Shock: said, 1 listing before the last	Shock: said, the last settled listing	85% from settlement history
AIK 81¢	AI: said, 7 listings before the last	AI: said, 6 listings before the last	AI: said, 5 listings before the last	AI: said, 4 listings before the last	AI: not said, 3 listings before the last	AI: said, 2 listings before the last	AI: said, 1 listing before the last	AI: said, the last settled listing	77% from settlement history
Good DayK 94¢ · P 94¢	Good Day: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Good Day: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Good Day: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Good Day: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Good Day: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Good Day: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Good Day: said, 1 listing before the last	Good Day: said, the last settled listing	76% from settlement history

Kalshi

Polymarket+57 more words Last transcript · Sep 16, 2026

CVNACarvana

After close

CVNA: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	FY24 Q3	FY24 Q4	FY25 Q1	FY25 Q2	FY25 Q3	FY25 Q4	FY26 Q1	FY26 Q2	Chance next call: probability
ADESAK 86¢	ADESA: 11 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	ADESA: 5 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	ADESA: 5 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	ADESA: 15 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	ADESA: 11 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	ADESA: 2 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	ADESA: 6 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	ADESA: 2 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	88% from transcript model
AIK 80¢	AI: 0 times, FY24 Q3	AI: 3 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	AI: 0 times, FY25 Q1	AI: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	AI: 4 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	AI: 5 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	AI: 1 time, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	AI: 1 time, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	82% from settlement history blended with transcripts
AcquiredK 93¢	Acquired: 5 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Acquired: 3 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Acquired: 3 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Acquired: 1 time, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Acquired: 1 time, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Acquired: 2 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Acquired: 1 time, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Acquired: 1 time, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	81% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Market ShareK 74¢	Market Share: 4 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Market Share: 12 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Market Share: 5 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Market Share: 1 time, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Market Share: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Market Share: 3 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Market Share: 1 time, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Market Share: 1 time, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	73% from settlement history blended with transcripts
TariffK 69¢	Tariff: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Tariff: 1 time, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Tariff: 5 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Tariff: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Tariff: 1 time, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Tariff: 0 times, FY25 Q4	Tariff: 1 time, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Tariff: 3 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	68% from settlement history blended with transcripts
SebastianK 58¢	Sebastian: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Sebastian: 1 time, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Sebastian: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Sebastian: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Sebastian: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Sebastian: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Sebastian: 0 times, FY26 Q1	Sebastian: 3 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	59% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+7 more words Last call · Jul 29, 2026

FFord

5:00 pm ET

F: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	FY24 Q3	FY24 Q4	FY25 Q1	FY25 Q2	FY25 Q3	FY25 Q4	FY26 Q1	FY26 Q2	Chance next call: probability
TariffK 92¢	Tariff: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Tariff: 9 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Tariff: 41 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Tariff: 23 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Tariff: 26 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Tariff: 14 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Tariff: 8 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Tariff: 5 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	94% from settlement history blended with transcripts
HeadwindK 90¢	Headwind: 5 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Headwind: 2 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Headwind: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Headwind: 4 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Headwind: 12 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Headwind: 2 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Headwind: 2 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Headwind: 4 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	91% from settlement history blended with transcripts
RecallK 69¢	Recall: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Recall: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Recall: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Recall: 11 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Recall: 5 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Recall: 2 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Recall: 0 times, FY26 Q1	Recall: 12 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	85% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Electric vehicle3+K 92¢	Electric vehicle: 25 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Electric vehicle: 22 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Electric vehicle: 5 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Electric vehicle: 24 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Electric vehicle: 9 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Electric vehicle: 16 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Electric vehicle: 8 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Electric vehicle: 5 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	83% from transcript model
Novelis3+K 74¢	Novelis: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Novelis: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Novelis: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Novelis: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Novelis: 17 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Novelis: 14 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Novelis: 18 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Novelis: 11 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	79% from transcript model
OakvilleK 66¢	Oakville: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Oakville: 1 time, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Oakville: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Oakville: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Oakville: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Oakville: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Oakville: 2 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Oakville: 4 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	71% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+10 more words Last call · Jul 28, 2026

FDXFedEx

5:30 pm ET

FDX: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	FY25 Q1	FY25 Q2	FY25 Q3	FY25 Q4	FY26 Q1	FY26 Q2	FY26 Q3	FY26 Q4	Chance next call: probability
HeadwindK 90¢	Headwind: 10 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Headwind: 17 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Headwind: 14 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Headwind: 16 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Headwind: 22 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Headwind: 19 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	Headwind: 14 times, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	Headwind: 15 times, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	96% from transcript model
DividendK 88¢	Dividend: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Dividend: 1 time, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Dividend: 1 time, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Dividend: 3 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Dividend: 2 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Dividend: 1 time, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	Dividend: 1 time, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	Dividend: 5 times, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	83% from settlement history blended with transcripts
De MinimisK 85¢	De Minimis: 0 times, FY25 Q1	De Minimis: 0 times, FY25 Q2	De Minimis: 4 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	De Minimis: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	De Minimis: 6 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	De Minimis: 1 time, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	De Minimis: 1 time, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	De Minimis: 1 time, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	82% from settlement history blended with transcripts
TailwindK 75¢	Tailwind: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Tailwind: 1 time, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Tailwind: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Tailwind: 2 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Tailwind: 3 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Tailwind: 3 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	Tailwind: 3 times, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	Tailwind: 2 times, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	76% from transcript model
GuidanceK 87¢	Guidance: 4 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Guidance: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Guidance: 2 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Guidance: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Guidance: 2 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Guidance: 2 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	Guidance: 0 times, FY26 Q3	Guidance: 2 times, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	74% from settlement history blended with transcripts
InventoryK 55¢	Inventory: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Inventory: 1 time, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Inventory: 2 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Inventory: 0 times, FY25 Q4	Inventory: 0 times, FY26 Q1	Inventory: 0 times, FY26 Q2	Inventory: 1 time, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	Inventory: 1 time, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	54% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+7 more words Last call · Jun 23, 2026

EBAYeBay

5:30 pm ET

EBAY: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	FY24 Q3	FY24 Q4	FY25 Q1	FY25 Q2	FY25 Q3	FY25 Q4	FY26 Q1	FY26 Q2	Chance next call: probability
AIK 97¢	AI: 7 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	AI: 16 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	AI: 11 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	AI: 17 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	AI: 21 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	AI: 19 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	AI: 22 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	AI: 11 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	97% from settlement history blended with transcripts
DepopK 92¢	Depop: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Depop: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Depop: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Depop: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Depop: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Depop: 29 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Depop: 7 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Depop: 43 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	94% from settlement history blended with transcripts
InternationalK 96¢	International: 4 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	International: 2 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	International: 8 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	International: 3 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	International: 7 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	International: 6 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	International: 10 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	International: 6 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	94% from settlement history blended with transcripts
DividendK 94¢	Dividend: 3 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Dividend: 5 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Dividend: 4 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Dividend: 3 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Dividend: 5 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Dividend: 7 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Dividend: 3 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Dividend: 3 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	91% from settlement history blended with transcripts
GoldinK 87¢	Goldin: 9 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Goldin: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Goldin: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Goldin: 3 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Goldin: 2 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Goldin: 9 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Goldin: 3 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Goldin: 2 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	86% from settlement history blended with transcripts
AustraliaK 86¢	Australia: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Australia: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Australia: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Australia: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Australia: 2 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Australia: 4 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Australia: 4 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Australia: 6 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	83% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+8 more words Last call · Aug 5, 2026

SFMSprouts

6:00 pm ET

SFM: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	FY24 Q3	FY24 Q4	FY25 Q1	FY25 Q2	FY25 Q3	FY25 Q4	FY26 Q1	FY26 Q2	Chance next call: probability
PersonalizationK 88¢	Personalization: 1 time, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Personalization: 4 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Personalization: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Personalization: 1 time, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Personalization: 5 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Personalization: 8 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Personalization: 3 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Personalization: 7 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	92% from settlement history blended with transcripts
InflationK 80¢	Inflation: 4 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Inflation: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Inflation: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Inflation: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Inflation: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Inflation: 5 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Inflation: 11 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Inflation: 3 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	84% from settlement history blended with transcripts
E-commerceK 93¢	E-commerce: 6 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	E-commerce: 10 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	E-commerce: 7 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	E-commerce: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	E-commerce: 1 time, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	E-commerce: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	E-commerce: 2 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	E-commerce: 4 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	83% from settlement history blended with transcripts
DeliveryK 70¢	Delivery: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Delivery: 2 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Delivery: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Delivery: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Delivery: 1 time, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Delivery: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Delivery: 1 time, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Delivery: 1 time, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	65% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Seed OilK 66¢	Seed Oil: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Seed Oil: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Seed Oil: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Seed Oil: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Seed Oil: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Seed Oil: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Seed Oil: 1 time, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Seed Oil: 2 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	59% from transcript model
Self-distribution3+K 73¢	Self-distribution: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Self-distribution: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Self-distribution: 7 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Self-distribution: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (below the threshold)	Self-distribution: 4 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Self-distribution: 9 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Self-distribution: 5 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Self-distribution: 2 times, FY26 Q2 (below the threshold)	53% from transcript model

Kalshi+9 more words Last call · Jul 29, 2026

CMGChipotle

CMG: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	FY24 Q3	FY24 Q4	FY25 Q1	FY25 Q2	FY25 Q3	FY25 Q4	FY26 Q1	FY26 Q2	Chance next call: probability
InflationK 95¢	Inflation: 11 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Inflation: 9 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Inflation: 7 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Inflation: 4 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Inflation: 18 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Inflation: 13 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Inflation: 9 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Inflation: 9 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	96% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Al PastorK 67¢	Al Pastor: 1 time, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Al Pastor: 2 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Al Pastor: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Al Pastor: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Al Pastor: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Al Pastor: 4 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Al Pastor: 4 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Al Pastor: 1 time, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	81% from settlement history blended with transcripts
IranK 73¢	Iran: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Iran: 4 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Iran: 2 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Iran: 1 time, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Iran: 3 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Iran: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Iran: 5 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Iran: 3 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	80% from transcript model
Chipotle LaneK 90¢	Chipotle Lane: 2 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Chipotle Lane: 10 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Chipotle Lane: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Chipotle Lane: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Chipotle Lane: 2 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Chipotle Lane: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Chipotle Lane: 0 times, FY26 Q1	Chipotle Lane: 2 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	78% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Honey ChickenK 83¢	Honey Chicken: 2 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Honey Chicken: 1 time, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Honey Chicken: 6 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Honey Chicken: 4 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Honey Chicken: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Honey Chicken: 0 times, FY25 Q4	Honey Chicken: 3 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Honey Chicken: 6 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	75% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Cilantro LimeK 72¢	Cilantro Lime: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Cilantro Lime: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Cilantro Lime: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Cilantro Lime: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Cilantro Lime: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Cilantro Lime: 0 times, FY25 Q4	Cilantro Lime: 7 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Cilantro Lime: 4 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	73% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+11 more words Last call · Jul 29, 2026

GEVGE Vernova

GEV: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	FY24 Q3	FY24 Q4	FY25 Q1	FY25 Q2	FY25 Q3	FY25 Q4	FY26 Q1	FY26 Q2	Chance next call: probability
NuclearK 92¢	Nuclear: 14 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Nuclear: 6 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Nuclear: 5 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Nuclear: 4 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Nuclear: 2 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Nuclear: 6 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Nuclear: 8 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Nuclear: 3 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	93% from settlement history blended with transcripts
TariffK 87¢	Tariff: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Tariff: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Tariff: 19 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Tariff: 7 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Tariff: 4 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Tariff: 5 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Tariff: 10 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Tariff: 3 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	90% from settlement history blended with transcripts
InflationK 89¢	Inflation: 2 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Inflation: 3 times, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Inflation: 9 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Inflation: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Inflation: 1 time, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Inflation: 4 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Inflation: 3 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Inflation: 3 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	89% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Prolec3+K 88¢	Prolec: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Prolec: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Prolec: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Prolec: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Prolec: 61 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Prolec: 23 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Prolec: 18 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Prolec: 9 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	88% from transcript model
ElectricityK 86¢	Electricity: 4 times, FY24 Q3 (counts as said)	Electricity: 1 time, FY24 Q4 (counts as said)	Electricity: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Electricity: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Electricity: 2 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Electricity: 1 time, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Electricity: 3 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Electricity: 5 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	86% from settlement history blended with transcripts
RoboticK 82¢	Robotic: 0 times, FY24 Q3	Robotic: 0 times, FY24 Q4	Robotic: 1 time, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Robotic: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Robotic: 1 time, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Robotic: 2 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Robotic: 1 time, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Robotic: 4 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	81% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+9 more words Last call · Jul 22, 2026

MSFTMicrosoft

MSFT: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	FY25 Q1	FY25 Q2	FY25 Q3	FY25 Q4	FY26 Q1	FY26 Q2	FY26 Q3	FY26 Q4	Chance next call: probability
OpenAI3+K 91¢	OpenAI: 11 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	OpenAI: 13 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	OpenAI: 4 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	OpenAI: 4 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	OpenAI: 18 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	OpenAI: 14 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	OpenAI: 12 times, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	OpenAI: 14 times, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	89% from transcript model
GitHub3+K 90¢	GitHub: 13 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	GitHub: 7 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	GitHub: 3 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	GitHub: 19 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	GitHub: 11 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	GitHub: 12 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	GitHub: 11 times, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	GitHub: 11 times, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	87% from transcript model
FrontierK 84¢	Frontier: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Frontier: 2 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Frontier: 1 time, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Frontier: 0 times, FY25 Q4	Frontier: 0 times, FY26 Q1	Frontier: 0 times, FY26 Q2	Frontier: 1 time, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	Frontier: 11 times, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	82% from settlement history blended with transcripts
AMDK 71¢	AMD: 3 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	AMD: 1 time, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	AMD: 0 times, FY25 Q3	AMD: 0 times, FY25 Q4	AMD: 1 time, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	AMD: 2 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	AMD: 1 time, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	AMD: 2 times, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	76% from settlement history blended with transcripts
GamingK 42¢	Gaming: 7 times, FY25 Q1 (counts as said)	Gaming: 7 times, FY25 Q2 (counts as said)	Gaming: 9 times, FY25 Q3 (counts as said)	Gaming: 3 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Gaming: 3 times, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Gaming: 4 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	Gaming: 2 times, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	Gaming: 0 times, FY26 Q4	72% from settlement history blended with transcripts
AnthropicK 86¢	Anthropic: 0 times, FY25 Q1	Anthropic: 0 times, FY25 Q2	Anthropic: 0 times, FY25 Q3	Anthropic: 2 times, FY25 Q4 (counts as said)	Anthropic: 1 time, FY26 Q1 (counts as said)	Anthropic: 5 times, FY26 Q2 (counts as said)	Anthropic: 2 times, FY26 Q3 (counts as said)	Anthropic: 5 times, FY26 Q4 (counts as said)	72% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+8 more words Last call · Jul 29, 2026

MicrosoftGitHub Universe Keynote

Microsoft: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
CopilotK 86¢	Copilot: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Copilot: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Copilot: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Copilot: said, 3 listings before the last	Copilot: said, 2 listings before the last	Copilot: said, 1 listing before the last	Copilot: said, the last settled listing	81% from settlement history
AgentK 74¢	Agent: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Agent: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
FrontierK 57¢	Frontier: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Frontier: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Frontier: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Frontier: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Frontier: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Frontier: said, 1 listing before the last	Frontier: said, the last settled listing	65% from settlement history
FoundryK 42¢	Foundry: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Foundry: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
MemoryK 32¢	Memory: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Memory: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
CodexK 32¢	Codex: said, 6 listings before the last	Codex: said, 5 listings before the last	Codex: said, 4 listings before the last	Codex: said, 3 listings before the last	Codex: said, 2 listings before the last	Codex: said, 1 listing before the last	Codex: not said, the last settled listing	58% from settlement history

Kalshi+7 more words Last call · Jul 29, 2026

Lemonade StandEpisode

By Wed, Oct 28

Lemonade Stand: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
MoneyP 74¢	Money: said, 7 listings before the last	Money: said, 6 listings before the last	Money: said, 5 listings before the last	Money: said, 4 listings before the last	Money: said, 3 listings before the last	Money: said, 2 listings before the last	Money: said, 1 listing before the last	Money: said, the last settled listing	93% from settlement history
DifferentP 74¢	Different: said, 7 listings before the last	Different: said, 6 listings before the last	Different: said, 5 listings before the last	Different: said, 4 listings before the last	Different: said, 3 listings before the last	Different: said, 2 listings before the last	Different: said, 1 listing before the last	Different: said, the last settled listing	86% from settlement history
ProblemP 74¢	Problem: said, 7 listings before the last	Problem: said, 6 listings before the last	Problem: said, 5 listings before the last	Problem: said, 4 listings before the last	Problem: said, 3 listings before the last	Problem: said, 2 listings before the last	Problem: said, 1 listing before the last	Problem: said, the last settled listing	86% from settlement history
IranP 26¢	Iran: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Iran: said, 6 listings before the last	Iran: said, 5 listings before the last	Iran: said, 4 listings before the last	Iran: said, 3 listings before the last	Iran: said, 2 listings before the last	Iran: said, 1 listing before the last	Iran: not said, the last settled listing	84% from settlement history
CarP 74¢	Car: said, 7 listings before the last	Car: said, 6 listings before the last	Car: not said, 5 listings before the last	Car: said, 4 listings before the last	Car: said, 3 listings before the last	Car: said, 2 listings before the last	Car: said, 1 listing before the last	Car: said, the last settled listing	68% from settlement history
RedP 74¢	Red: said, 7 listings before the last	Red: not said, 6 listings before the last	Red: said, 5 listings before the last	Red: said, 4 listings before the last	Red: said, 3 listings before the last	Red: said, 2 listings before the last	Red: not said, 1 listing before the last	Red: said, the last settled listing	63% from settlement history

Polymarket+7 more words Last transcript · Oct 21, 2026

Prime Minister's QuestionsThe next Prime Minister's Questions event

By Wed, Oct 28

Prime Minister's Questions: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
DefenceP 76¢	Defence: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Defence: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Defence: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Defence: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Defence: said, 3 listings before the last	Defence: not said, 2 listings before the last	Defence: said, 1 listing before the last	Defence: said, the last settled listing	55% from settlement history
Mr Speaker30+P 74¢	Mr Speaker: not said, 7 listings before the last	Mr Speaker: not said, 6 listings before the last	Mr Speaker: said, 5 listings before the last	Mr Speaker: not said, 4 listings before the last	Mr Speaker: said, 3 listings before the last	Mr Speaker: not said, 2 listings before the last	Mr Speaker: said, 1 listing before the last	Mr Speaker: said, the last settled listing	48% from settlement history
ScotlandP 80¢	Scotland: not said, 7 listings before the last	Scotland: not said, 6 listings before the last	Scotland: said, 5 listings before the last	Scotland: said, 4 listings before the last	Scotland: not said, 3 listings before the last	Scotland: not said, 2 listings before the last	Scotland: said, 1 listing before the last	Scotland: not said, the last settled listing	47% from settlement history
NHSP 34¢	NHS: said, 7 listings before the last	NHS: said, 6 listings before the last	NHS: said, 5 listings before the last	NHS: said, 4 listings before the last	NHS: said, 3 listings before the last	NHS: not said, 2 listings before the last	NHS: not said, 1 listing before the last	NHS: not said, the last settled listing	44% from settlement history
ReformP 74¢	Reform: said, 7 listings before the last	Reform: said, 6 listings before the last	Reform: said, 5 listings before the last	Reform: not said, 4 listings before the last	Reform: not said, 3 listings before the last	Reform: not said, 2 listings before the last	Reform: said, 1 listing before the last	Reform: said, the last settled listing	41% from settlement history
Million5+P 56¢	Million: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Million: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Million: said, 5 listings before the last	Million: not said, 4 listings before the last	Million: said, 3 listings before the last	Million: not said, 2 listings before the last	Million: not said, 1 listing before the last	Million: not said, the last settled listing	35% from settlement history

Polymarket+3 more words Last transcript · Oct 21, 2026