Lemonade Stand
As of Oct 24, 2026, Polymarket has settled 411 word markets on Lemonade Stand since 2026, on 115 different words; most reliably said: “Money” (16 of 16). Next: Episode, by Oct 28, 2026 (13 words listed).
Next: Episode ·
13 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket| Word | Jul 29episode | Aug 26episode | Sep 2episode | Sep 9episode | Sep 16episode | Sep 23episode | Sep 30episode | Oct 7episode | Oct 14episode | Oct 21latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyevery time | Settled yes: Money, Jul 29 episode | 21 times: Money, Aug 26 episode, counts as said | 60 times: Money, Sep 2 episode, counts as said | 30 times: Money, Sep 9 episode, counts as said | 60 times: Money, Sep 16 episode, counts as said | 13 times: Money, Sep 23 episode, counts as said | 20 times: Money, Sep 30 episode, counts as said | 30 times: Money, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 41 times: Money, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 19 times: Money, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 10/10100% | 16/16100% | 93%n=15 from settlement history | 74¢ Polymarket |
| Differentevery time | Settled yes: Different, Jul 29 episode | Not listed: Different, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Different, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Different, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Different, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Different, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Different, Sep 30 episode | 16 times: Different, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 13 times: Different, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 9 times: Different, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 4/4100% | 8/8100% | 86%n=7 from settlement history | 74¢ Polymarket |
| Problemevery time | Settled yes: Problem, Jul 29 episode | Not listed: Problem, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Problem, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Problem, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Problem, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Problem, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Problem, Sep 30 episode | 4 times: Problem, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 21 times: Problem, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 5 times: Problem, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 4/4100% | 8/8100% | 86%n=7 from settlement history | 74¢ Polymarket |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jul 29 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 30 episode | 10 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 11 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 21 episode | 2/367% | 6/786% | 84%n=6 from settlement history | 26¢ Polymarket |
| Car / Vehicle | Settled yes: Car / Vehicle, Jul 29 episode | Not listed: Car / Vehicle, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Car / Vehicle, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Car / Vehicle, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Car / Vehicle, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Car / Vehicle, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Car / Vehicle, Sep 30 episode | 3 times: Car / Vehicle, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 6 times: Car / Vehicle, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 4 times: Car / Vehicle, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 4/4100% | 7/978% | 68%n=8 from settlement history | 74¢ Polymarket |
| Red | Settled no: Red, Jul 29 episode | 1 time: Red, Aug 26 episode, counts as said | 13 times: Red, Sep 2 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Red, Sep 9 episode, counts as said (our count 1 · the market settled no) | 6 times: Red, Sep 16 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Red, Sep 23 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Red, Sep 30 episode (our count 0 (needs 1) · the market settled yes) | 3 times: Red, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Red, Oct 14 episode | 2 times: Red, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 7/1070% | 13/1968% | 63%n=18 from settlement history | 74¢ Polymarket |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence15+ times | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Jul 29 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Sep 30 episode | 15 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Oct 7 episode, counts as said (our count 15 · the market settled no) | 84 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 35 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 3/3100% | 3/475% | 61%n=3 from settlement history | 74¢ Polymarket |
| Blue | Settled no: Blue, Jul 29 episode | 0 times: Blue, Aug 26 episode | 16 times: Blue, Sep 2 episode, counts as said | 2 times: Blue, Sep 9 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Blue, Sep 16 episode | 3 times: Blue, Sep 23 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Blue, Sep 30 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Blue, Oct 7 episode | 1 time: Blue, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Blue, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 6/1060% | 12/1963% | 59%n=18 from settlement history | 26¢ Polymarket |
| Trump10+ times | Not listed: Trump 10+ times, Jul 29 episode | 17 times: Trump 10+ times, Aug 26 episode, counts as said | 46 times: Trump 10+ times, Sep 2 episode, counts as said | 9 times: Trump 10+ times, Sep 9 episode, below the threshold | 0 times: Trump 10+ times, Sep 16 episode | 65 times: Trump 10+ times, Sep 23 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Trump 10+ times, Sep 30 episode | 46 times: Trump 10+ times, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 16 times: Trump 10+ times, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Trump 10+ times, Oct 21 episode | 5/956% | 6/1155% | 58%n=10 from settlement history | 74¢ Polymarket |
| Green | Not listed: Green, Jul 29 episode | Not listed: Green, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Green, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Green, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Green, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Green, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Green, Sep 30 episode | 0 times: Green, Oct 7 episode | 1 time: Green, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 3 times: Green, Oct 21 episode, counts as said | 2/367% | 5/862% | 56%n=7 from settlement history | 74¢ Polymarket |
| Nordic | Not listed: Nordic, Jul 29 episode | Not listed: Nordic, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Nordic, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Nordic, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Nordic, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Nordic, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Nordic, Sep 30 episode | 9 times: Nordic, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Nordic, Oct 14 episode | 0 times: Nordic, Oct 21 episode | 1/333% | 2/540% | 53%n=4 from settlement history | 26¢ Polymarket |
| Korea / Korean | Not listed: Korea / Korean, Jul 29 episode | Not listed: Korea / Korean, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Korea / Korean, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Korea / Korean, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Korea / Korean, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Korea / Korean, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Korea / Korean, Sep 30 episode | 0 times: Korea / Korean, Oct 7 episode | 22 times: Korea / Korean, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Korea / Korean, Oct 21 episode | 1/333% | 3/1030% | 39%n=9 from settlement history | 26¢ Polymarket |
| Legalitynever said | Settled no: Legality, Jul 29 episode | Not listed: Legality, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Legality, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Legality, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Legality, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Legality, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Legality, Sep 30 episode | 0 times: Legality, Oct 7 episode | 0 times: Legality, Oct 14 episode | 0 times: Legality, Oct 21 episode | 0/40% | 0/80% | 19%n=7 from settlement history | 26¢ Polymarket |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 23, 2026 21:15 UTC.
Every word
1–40 of 107, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Aug 12episode | Aug 26episode | Sep 2episode | Sep 9episode | Sep 16episode | Sep 23episode | Sep 30episode | Oct 7episode | Oct 14episode | Oct 21latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Aug 12 episode | 43 times: China / Chinese, Aug 26 episode, counts as said | 3 times: China / Chinese, Sep 2 episode, counts as said | 38 times: China / Chinese, Sep 9 episode, counts as said | 0 times: China / Chinese, Sep 16 episode | 19 times: China / Chinese, Sep 23 episode, counts as said | 45 times: China / Chinese, Sep 30 episode, counts as said | 1 time: China / Chinese, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 1 time: China / Chinese, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 21 episode | 8/989% | 16/1794% | 88%n=17 from settlement history |
| Collateral | Not listed: Collateral, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Collateral, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Collateral, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Collateral, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Collateral, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Collateral, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Collateral, Sep 30 episode | 0 times: Collateral, Oct 7 episode | 0 times: Collateral, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Collateral, Oct 21 episode | 0/20% | 1/119% | 20%n=11 from settlement history |
| Actuallyevery time | Not listed: Actually, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Actually, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Actually, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Actually, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Actually, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Actually, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Actually, Sep 30 episode | 26 times: Actually, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 33 times: Actually, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Actually, Oct 21 episode | 2/2100% | 10/10100% | 90%n=10 from settlement history |
| Honestlyevery time | Not listed: Honestly, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Honestly, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Honestly, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Honestly, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Honestly, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Honestly, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Honestly, Sep 30 episode | 1 time: Honestly, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Honestly, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Honestly, Oct 21 episode | 2/2100% | 10/10100% | 90%n=10 from settlement history |
| Thinkevery time | Not listed: Think, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Think, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Think, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Think, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Think, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Think, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Think, Sep 30 episode | 110 times: Think, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 104 times: Think, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Think, Oct 21 episode | 2/2100% | 8/8100% | 87%n=8 from settlement history |
| Trump5+ times | Settled yes: Trump 5+ times, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Trump 5+ times, Oct 21 episode | 1/1100% | 7/888% | 77%n=8 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence10+ times | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Aug 12 episode | 34 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Aug 26 episode, counts as said | 1 time: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Sep 2 episode, below the threshold | 36 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Sep 9 episode, counts as said | 1 time: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Sep 16 episode, below the threshold | 37 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Sep 23 episode, counts as said | 12 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Sep 30 episode, counts as said (our count 12 · the market settled no) | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Oct 21 episode | 5/771% | 5/862% | 60%n=8 from settlement history |
| Experimentalnever said | Settled no: Experimental, Aug 12 episode | 0 times: Experimental, Aug 26 episode | 0 times: Experimental, Sep 2 episode | 0 times: Experimental, Sep 9 episode | 0 times: Experimental, Sep 16 episode | 0 times: Experimental, Sep 23 episode | 0 times: Experimental, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Experimental, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Experimental, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Experimental, Oct 21 episode | 0/70% | 0/80% | 17%n=8 from settlement history |
| Timeevery time | Settled yes: Time, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Time, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Time, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Time, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Time, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Time, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Time, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Time, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Time, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Time, Oct 21 episode | 1/1100% | 6/6100% | 84%n=6 from settlement history |
| Ukraine / Ukrainianevery time | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Sep 30 episode | 2 times: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 7 episode, counts as said | 7 times: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 14 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 21 episode | 2/2100% | 6/6100% | 84%n=6 from settlement history |
| Japan | Not listed: Japan, Aug 12 episode | 2 times: Japan, Aug 26 episode, counts as said | 0 times: Japan, Sep 2 episode | 5 times: Japan, Sep 9 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Japan, Sep 16 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Japan, Sep 23 episode, counts as said | 1 time: Japan, Sep 30 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Japan, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Japan, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Japan, Oct 21 episode | 5/683% | 5/683% | 72%n=6 from settlement history |
| Crazyevery time | Not listed: Crazy, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Oct 21 episode | – | 5/5100% | 82%n=5 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence5+ times | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times, Oct 21 episode | – | 3/560% | 58%n=5 from settlement history |
| World Cup | Not listed: World Cup, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Sep 30 episode | 0 times: World Cup, Oct 7 episode | 0 times: World Cup, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 21 episode | 0/20% | 2/540% | 47%n=5 from settlement history |
| Arbitrage | Not listed: Arbitrage, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Arbitrage, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Arbitrage, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Arbitrage, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Arbitrage, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Arbitrage, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Arbitrage, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Arbitrage, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Arbitrage, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Arbitrage, Oct 21 episode | – | 1/520% | 36%n=5 from settlement history |
| Federal Reservenever said | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Federal Reserve, Oct 21 episode | – | 0/50% | 24%n=5 from settlement history |
| Patreonevery time | Not listed: Patreon, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Patreon, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Patreon, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Patreon, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Patreon, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Patreon, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Patreon, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Patreon, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Patreon, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Patreon, Oct 21 episode | – | 4/4100% | 79%n=4 from settlement history |
| Trumpevery time | Not listed: Trump, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Trump, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Trump, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Trump, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Trump, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Trump, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Trump, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Trump, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Trump, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Trump, Oct 21 episode | – | 4/4100% | 79%n=4 from settlement history |
| Energy | Not listed: Energy, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Energy, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Energy, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Energy, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Energy, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Energy, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Energy, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Energy, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Energy, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Energy, Oct 21 episode | – | 3/475% | 65%n=4 from settlement history |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Iran, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Iran, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Iran, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Iran, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Iran, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Iran, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Iran, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Iran, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Iran, Oct 21 episode | – | 3/475% | 65%n=4 from settlement history |
| Housing | Not listed: Housing, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Housing, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Housing, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Housing, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Housing, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Housing, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Housing, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Housing, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Housing, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Housing, Oct 21 episode | – | 2/450% | 53%n=4 from settlement history |
| Automatic | Settled no: Automatic, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Automatic, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Automatic, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Automatic, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Automatic, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Automatic, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Automatic, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Automatic, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Automatic, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Automatic, Oct 21 episode | 0/10% | 1/425% | 40%n=4 from settlement history |
| Gold | Not listed: Gold, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Gold, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Gold, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Gold, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Gold, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Gold, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Gold, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Gold, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Gold, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Gold, Oct 21 episode | – | 1/425% | 40%n=4 from settlement history |
| Scam | Not listed: Scam, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Scam, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Scam, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Scam, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Scam, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Scam, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Scam, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Scam, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Scam, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Scam, Oct 21 episode | – | 1/425% | 40%n=4 from settlement history |
| Amortizationnever said | Not listed: Amortization, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Amortization, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Amortization, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Amortization, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Amortization, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Amortization, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Amortization, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Amortization, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Amortization, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Amortization, Oct 21 episode | – | 0/40% | 28%n=4 from settlement history |
| Fiduciarynever said | Not listed: Fiduciary, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Fiduciary, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Fiduciary, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Fiduciary, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Fiduciary, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Fiduciary, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Fiduciary, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Fiduciary, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Fiduciary, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Fiduciary, Oct 21 episode | – | 0/40% | 28%n=4 from settlement history |
| Anthropic / Claude | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Oct 21 episode | – | 3/3100% | 75%n=3 from settlement history |
| China | Not listed: China, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: China, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: China, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: China, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: China, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: China, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: China, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: China, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: China, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: China, Oct 21 episode | – | 3/3100% | 75%n=3 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas, Oct 21 episode | – | 3/3100% | 75%n=3 from settlement history |
| Left | Not listed: Left, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Left, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Left, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Left, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Left, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Left, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Left, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Left, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Left, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Left, Oct 21 episode | – | 3/3100% | 75%n=3 from settlement history |
| Right | Not listed: Right, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Right, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Right, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Right, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Right, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Right, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Right, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Right, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Right, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Right, Oct 21 episode | – | 3/3100% | 75%n=3 from settlement history |
| Basketball | Not listed: Basketball, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Basketball, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Basketball, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Basketball, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Basketball, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Basketball, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Basketball, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Basketball, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Basketball, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Basketball, Oct 21 episode | – | 1/333% | 46%n=3 from settlement history |
| Blockade | Not listed: Blockade, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Oct 21 episode | – | 1/333% | 46%n=3 from settlement history |
| Economy | Not listed: Economy, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Economy, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Economy, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Economy, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Economy, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Economy, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Economy, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Economy, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Economy, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Economy, Oct 21 episode | – | 1/333% | 46%n=3 from settlement history |
| Xi | Not listed: Xi, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Xi, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Xi, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Xi, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Xi, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Xi, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Xi, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Xi, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Xi, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Xi, Oct 21 episode | – | 1/333% | 46%n=3 from settlement history |
| Magic | Not listed: Magic, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Magic, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Magic, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Magic, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Magic, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Magic, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Magic, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Magic, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Magic, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Magic, Oct 21 episode | – | 0/30% | 32%n=3 from settlement history |
| China3+ times | Not listed: China 3+ times, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: China 3+ times, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: China 3+ times, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: China 3+ times, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: China 3+ times, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: China 3+ times, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: China 3+ times, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: China 3+ times, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: China 3+ times, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: China 3+ times, Oct 21 episode | – | 2/2100% | 71%n=2 from settlement history |
| IPO | Not listed: IPO, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: IPO, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: IPO, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: IPO, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: IPO, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: IPO, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: IPO, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: IPO, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: IPO, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: IPO, Oct 21 episode | – | 2/2100% | 71%n=2 from settlement history |
| Korea | Not listed: Korea, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: Korea, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: Korea, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: Korea, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: Korea, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: Korea, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: Korea, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: Korea, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: Korea, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: Korea, Oct 21 episode | – | 2/2100% | 71%n=2 from settlement history |
| New York | Not listed: New York, Aug 12 episode | Not listed: New York, Aug 26 episode | Not listed: New York, Sep 2 episode | Not listed: New York, Sep 9 episode | Not listed: New York, Sep 16 episode | Not listed: New York, Sep 23 episode | Not listed: New York, Sep 30 episode | Not listed: New York, Oct 7 episode | Not listed: New York, Oct 14 episode | Not listed: New York, Oct 21 episode | – | 2/2100% | 71%n=2 from settlement history |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Our transcript counts matched how 97 of 101 settled words resolved (96.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 21) | Captions · machine-attributed | 13 | 8 yes · 5 no | 13/13 (100%) |
| Oct 14, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14) | Machine transcript | 20 | 15 yes · 5 no | 20/20 (100%) |
| Oct 7, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 7) | Machine transcript | 20 | 13 yes · 7 no | 19/20 (95%) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 30) | Machine transcript | 8 | 5 yes · 3 no | 6/8 (75%) |
| Sep 23, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 23) | Machine transcript | 8 | 7 yes · 1 no | 8/8 (100%) |
| Sep 16, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 16) | Machine transcript | 8 | 3 yes · 5 no | 8/8 (100%) |
| Sep 9, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 9) | Machine transcript | 8 | 5 yes · 3 no | 7/8 (88%) |
| Sep 2, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 2) | Machine transcript | 8 | 5 yes · 3 no | 8/8 (100%) |
| Aug 26, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (August 26) | Machine transcript | 8 | 6 yes · 2 no | 8/8 (100%) |
| Aug 12, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (August 12) | no transcript | 10 | 7 yes · 3 no | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (August 5) | no transcript | 10 | 8 yes · 2 no | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (July 29) | no transcript | 18 | 13 yes · 5 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Lemonade Stand: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/lemonade-stand (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/lemonade-stand · words: /api/v1/history?entity=lemonade-stand · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP