Will “Iran / Iranian” be said on Lemonade Stand next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on Lemonade Stand in 6 of 7 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 20, 2026 (86%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 84% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 2, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 5.
- Last 10
- 6/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- anyone
- Market
- 26¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Lemonade Stand
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 84% · n=7
- Settled
- 6/7 (86%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
11 counted.
…Ukraine. And so for them to get even 300,000 tons out is something. And there's unconfirmed reports that some of it is imported from Iran.
So in which case, we are just funding Iranian, you know, it's like, and Russia gets a skim off the top. So we're just funding…
Counts: anyone
10 counted.
…And then you top it off with the rising fuel costs from the war in Iran. So you have a place that like all the
…Hormuz is because number one They were afraid of getting hit by Iranian drones But number two is they couldn't get insured Because even if…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | Yes | 11 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | Yes | 10 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 27, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Iran / Iranian” said on Lemonade Stand?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on Lemonade Stand in 6 of 7 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 20, 2026 (86%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said on Lemonade Stand next time?
- 84%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Lemonade Stand: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/lemonade-stand/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=lemonade-stand&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=lemonade-stand&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP