Will “Problem” be said on Lemonade Stand next time?
As of Oct 23, 2026, “Problem” was said on Lemonade Stand in 8 of 8 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 1, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 86% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 2, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 8.
- Last 10
- 8/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 8 times
- Counts
- anyone
- Market
- 74¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Lemonade Stand
Problem
- Probability
- 86% · n=8
- Settled
- 8/8 (100%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
5 counted.
and they throw lots of money at the problem. They don't really know how to like make something go viral or what captures attention. And…
Australia is beating us in enforcing gambling. That's a problem because they are the most gambling addicted country I've ever
Counts: anyone
21 counted.
…what's interesting, this is unconfirmed, but Russia before this had banned diesel exports in general because they have a diesel problem in their own country.
…on money to fund the war. That is not like the key problem. It's more just ruining all these international relations, right? And I mean,…
Counts: anyone
4 counted.
Like their energy security is a big problem right now. And it's just, that's fucking wild to think about the level of influence that another…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Problem |  Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Problem | Polymarket | Yes | 21 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Problem | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Problem | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Problem | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Problem | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Problem | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Problem | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Problem” said on Lemonade Stand?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, “Problem” was said on Lemonade Stand in 8 of 8 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 1, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Problem” is said on Lemonade Stand next time?
- 86%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Lemonade Stand: ‘Problem’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/lemonade-stand/words/problem (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=lemonade-stand&word=problem · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=lemonade-stand&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP