FedEx (FDX)

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As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 80 word markets on FedEx’s earnings calls since 2025, on 33 different words; most reliably said: “Tariff” (3 of 5). Next call: Oct 28, 2026 (13 words listed).

“Dividend” on the Jun 23 call · 25:39 · said 5 times. Play the clip

Next: Earnings call ·

13 words listed · Occasion page

Who counts: Kalshi: company speakers + operator

Kalshi

FedEx: the words listed for Wed, Oct 28, how often each was said on past occasions, and the probability for this one
WordQ1’25Sep '24Q2’25Dec '24Q3’25Mar '25Q4’25Jun '25Q1’26year agoQ2’26Dec '25Q3’26Mar '26Q4’26last callTrendLast 8ScriptedAll-timeProbabilityMarket
Headwind10 times: Headwind, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said17 times: Headwind, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said14 times: Headwind, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said16 times: Headwind, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said22 times: Headwind, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said19 times: Headwind, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said14 times: Headwind, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said15 times: Headwind, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidsteady8/8100%8/8100%53/7571%96%transcripts from the transcript model90¢ Kalshi
Dividend0 times: Dividend, Q1’25 Sep '241 time: Dividend, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said1 time: Dividend, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said3 times: Dividend, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said2 times: Dividend, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said1 time: Dividend, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said1 time: Dividend, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said5 times: Dividend, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidrising7/888%7/888%36/7548%83%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts88¢ Kalshi
De Minimis0 times: De Minimis, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: De Minimis, Q2’25 Dec '244 times: De Minimis, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said1 time: De Minimis, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said6 times: De Minimis, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said1 time: De Minimis, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said1 time: De Minimis, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said1 time: De Minimis, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidsteady6/875%3/838%8/7511%82%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts85¢ Kalshi
Tailwind0 times: Tailwind, Q1’25 Sep '241 time: Tailwind, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said0 times: Tailwind, Q3’25 Mar '252 times: Tailwind, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said3 times: Tailwind, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said3 times: Tailwind, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said3 times: Tailwind, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said2 times: Tailwind, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidrising6/875%5/862%15/7520%76%transcripts from the transcript model75¢ Kalshi
Guidance4 times: Guidance, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said2 times: Guidance, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said2 times: Guidance, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said1 time: Guidance, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said2 times: Guidance, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said2 times: Guidance, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said0 times: Guidance, Q3’26 Mar '262 times: Guidance, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidfalling7/888%1/812%58/7577%74%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts87¢ Kalshi
Inventory1 time: Inventory, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said1 time: Inventory, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said2 times: Inventory, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said0 times: Inventory, Q4’25 Jun '250 times: Inventory, Q1’26 Sep '250 times: Inventory, Q2’26 Dec '251 time: Inventory, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said1 time: Inventory, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidfalling5/862%2/825%52/7569%54%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts55¢ Kalshi
China0 times: China, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: China, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: China, Q3’25 Mar '257 times: China, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said8 times: China, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said1 time: China, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said0 times: China, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: China, Q4’26 Jun '26steady3/838%3/838%50/7567%51%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts34¢ Kalshi
Tariff0 times: Tariff, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: Tariff, Q2’25 Dec '241 time: Tariff, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said9 times: Tariff, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said0 times: Tariff, Q1’26 Sep '251 time: Tariff, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said0 times: Tariff, Q3’26 Mar '261 time: Tariff, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidsteady4/850%1/812%17/7523%50%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts63¢ Kalshi
E-commerce / Ecommerce7 times: E-commerce / Ecommerce, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said5 times: E-commerce / Ecommerce, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said3 times: E-commerce / Ecommerce, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said1 time: E-commerce / Ecommerce, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said2 times: E-commerce / Ecommerce, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said0 times: E-commerce / Ecommerce, Q2’26 Dec '251 time: E-commerce / Ecommerce, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said0 times: E-commerce / Ecommerce, Q4’26 Jun '26falling6/875%5/862%59/7579%48%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts68¢ Kalshi
ServiceNow0 times: ServiceNow, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: ServiceNow, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: ServiceNow, Q3’25 Mar '250 times: ServiceNow, Q4’25 Jun '250 times: ServiceNow, Q1’26 Sep '252 times: ServiceNow, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said0 times: ServiceNow, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: ServiceNow, Q4’26 Jun '26rising1/812%1/812%3/754%25%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts18¢ Kalshi
Labor0 times: Labor, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: Labor, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: Labor, Q3’25 Mar '250 times: Labor, Q4’25 Jun '251 time: Labor, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said0 times: Labor, Q2’26 Dec '250 times: Labor, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: Labor, Q4’26 Jun '26steady1/812%1/812%34/7545%20%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts34¢ Kalshi
Automation0 times: Automation, Q1’25 Sep '241 time: Automation, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said0 times: Automation, Q3’25 Mar '251 time: Automation, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said0 times: Automation, Q1’26 Sep '250 times: Automation, Q2’26 Dec '250 times: Automation, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: Automation, Q4’26 Jun '26falling2/825%2/825%29/7539%15%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts31¢ Kalshi
EV / Electric Vehicle0 times: EV / Electric Vehicle, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: EV / Electric Vehicle, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: EV / Electric Vehicle, Q3’25 Mar '250 times: EV / Electric Vehicle, Q4’25 Jun '250 times: EV / Electric Vehicle, Q1’26 Sep '250 times: EV / Electric Vehicle, Q2’26 Dec '250 times: EV / Electric Vehicle, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: EV / Electric Vehicle, Q4’26 Jun '26steady0/80%0/80%6/758%11%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts17¢ Kalshi
  • times said on that call
  • counted as said (ring)
  • no call
  • probability next time, with n
  • Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
Last N
of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
Trend
how the count moved over these calls
Scripted
calls of the last 8 where it was said in the prepared remarks
All-time
every call on file
Probability
the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 16:04 UTC.

Every word

1–22 of 22, most settled first
FedEx: every word with settled markets, most settled first
WordQ1’25Sep '24Q2’25Dec '24Q3’25Mar '25Q4’25Jun '25Q1’26Sep '25Q2’26Dec '25Q3’26Mar '26Q4’26last callTrendLast 8ScriptedAll-timeProbability
Smith0 times: Smith, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: Smith, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: Smith, Q3’25 Mar '254 times: Smith, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said0 times: Smith, Q1’26 Sep '253 times: Smith, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said3 times: Smith, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said1 time: Smith, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidrising4/850%4/850%63/7584%72%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Freight23 times: Freight, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said56 times: Freight, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said30 times: Freight, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said33 times: Freight, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said31 times: Freight, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said26 times: Freight, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said38 times: Freight, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said28 times: Freight, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidsteady8/8100%8/8100%72/7596%97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Truck0 times: Truck, Q1’25 Sep '241 time: Truck, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said3 times: Truck, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said0 times: Truck, Q4’25 Jun '252 times: Truck, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said0 times: Truck, Q2’26 Dec '250 times: Truck, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: Truck, Q4’26 Jun '26falling3/838%1/812%29/7539%35%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Shutdown / Shut Down0 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Q3’25 Mar '250 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Q4’25 Jun '250 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Q1’26 Sep '250 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Q2’26 Dec '250 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: Shutdown / Shut Down, Q4’26 Jun '26steady0/80%0/80%14/7519%12%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Asia-Pacific / Asia Pacific / APAC0 times: Asia-Pacific / Asia Pacific / APAC, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: Asia-Pacific / Asia Pacific / APAC, Q2’25 Dec '241 time: Asia-Pacific / Asia Pacific / APAC, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said0 times: Asia-Pacific / Asia Pacific / APAC, Q4’25 Jun '250 times: Asia-Pacific / Asia Pacific / APAC, Q1’26 Sep '251 time: Asia-Pacific / Asia Pacific / APAC, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said0 times: Asia-Pacific / Asia Pacific / APAC, Q3’26 Mar '264 times: Asia-Pacific / Asia Pacific / APAC, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidrising3/838%2/825%30/7540%61%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Cost21 times: Cost, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said18 times: Cost, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said22 times: Cost, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said14 times: Cost, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said17 times: Cost, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said19 times: Cost, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said27 times: Cost, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said19 times: Cost, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidsteady8/8100%8/8100%72/7596%97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Demand32 times: Demand, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said14 times: Demand, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said18 times: Demand, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said16 times: Demand, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said19 times: Demand, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said6 times: Demand, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said13 times: Demand, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said7 times: Demand, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidfalling8/8100%8/8100%71/7595%95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
EPS7 times: EPS, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said5 times: EPS, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said4 times: EPS, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said4 times: EPS, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said6 times: EPS, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said10 times: EPS, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said6 times: EPS, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said8 times: EPS, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidrising8/8100%8/8100%48/7564%93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Europe21 times: Europe, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said13 times: Europe, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said15 times: Europe, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said5 times: Europe, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said6 times: Europe, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said4 times: Europe, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said9 times: Europe, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said12 times: Europe, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidfalling8/8100%8/8100%70/7593%93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Europe / EU21 times: Europe / EU, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said13 times: Europe / EU, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said15 times: Europe / EU, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said5 times: Europe / EU, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said6 times: Europe / EU, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said4 times: Europe / EU, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said9 times: Europe / EU, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said12 times: Europe / EU, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidfalling8/8100%8/8100%70/7593%93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Express9 times: Express, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said16 times: Express, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said11 times: Express, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said6 times: Express, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said3 times: Express, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said2 times: Express, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said4 times: Express, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said3 times: Express, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidfalling8/8100%8/8100%73/7597%86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Fuel9 times: Fuel, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said6 times: Fuel, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said4 times: Fuel, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said4 times: Fuel, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said5 times: Fuel, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said1 time: Fuel, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said22 times: Fuel, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said18 times: Fuel, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidrising8/8100%8/8100%70/7593%95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Global trade2 times: Global trade, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said0 times: Global trade, Q2’25 Dec '241 time: Global trade, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said8 times: Global trade, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said8 times: Global trade, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said8 times: Global trade, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said6 times: Global trade, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said4 times: Global trade, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidrising7/888%6/875%36/7548%89%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
GROUND10 times: GROUND, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said13 times: GROUND, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said19 times: GROUND, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said6 times: GROUND, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said1 time: GROUND, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said1 time: GROUND, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said5 times: GROUND, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said5 times: GROUND, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidfalling8/8100%6/875%73/7597%86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Healthcare2 times: Healthcare, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said5 times: Healthcare, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said5 times: Healthcare, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said5 times: Healthcare, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said11 times: Healthcare, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said11 times: Healthcare, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said9 times: Healthcare, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said8 times: Healthcare, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidrising8/8100%8/8100%38/7551%94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Network35 times: Network, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said25 times: Network, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said42 times: Network, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said32 times: Network, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said20 times: Network, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said26 times: Network, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said25 times: Network, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said23 times: Network, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidfalling8/8100%8/8100%72/7596%97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Revenue31 times: Revenue, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said45 times: Revenue, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said39 times: Revenue, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said40 times: Revenue, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said38 times: Revenue, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said35 times: Revenue, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said46 times: Revenue, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said40 times: Revenue, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidsteady8/8100%8/8100%72/7596%97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Share5 times: Share, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said8 times: Share, Q2’25 Dec '24, counts as said13 times: Share, Q3’25 Mar '25, counts as said10 times: Share, Q4’25 Jun '25, counts as said11 times: Share, Q1’26 Sep '25, counts as said16 times: Share, Q2’26 Dec '25, counts as said22 times: Share, Q3’26 Mar '26, counts as said15 times: Share, Q4’26 Jun '26, counts as saidrising8/8100%8/8100%72/7596%96%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Last-mile / Last mile3 times: Last-mile / Last mile, Q1’25 Sep '24, counts as said0 times: Last-mile / Last mile, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: Last-mile / Last mile, Q3’25 Mar '250 times: Last-mile / Last mile, Q4’25 Jun '250 times: Last-mile / Last mile, Q1’26 Sep '250 times: Last-mile / Last mile, Q2’26 Dec '250 times: Last-mile / Last mile, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: Last-mile / Last mile, Q4’26 Jun '26falling1/812%1/812%26/7535%18%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Sustainability0 times: Sustainability, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: Sustainability, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: Sustainability, Q3’25 Mar '250 times: Sustainability, Q4’25 Jun '250 times: Sustainability, Q1’26 Sep '250 times: Sustainability, Q2’26 Dec '250 times: Sustainability, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: Sustainability, Q4’26 Jun '26steady0/80%0/80%10/7513%14%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
TNT Express0 times: TNT Express, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: TNT Express, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: TNT Express, Q3’25 Mar '250 times: TNT Express, Q4’25 Jun '250 times: TNT Express, Q1’26 Sep '250 times: TNT Express, Q2’26 Dec '250 times: TNT Express, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: TNT Express, Q4’26 Jun '26steady0/80%0/80%16/7521%14%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
Trade war0 times: Trade war, Q1’25 Sep '240 times: Trade war, Q2’25 Dec '240 times: Trade war, Q3’25 Mar '250 times: Trade war, Q4’25 Jun '250 times: Trade war, Q1’26 Sep '250 times: Trade war, Q2’26 Dec '250 times: Trade war, Q3’26 Mar '260 times: Trade war, Q4’26 Jun '26steady0/80%0/80%3/754%14%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts
What the columns mean
Last N
of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
Trend
how the count moved over these calls
Scripted
calls of the last 8 where it was said in the prepared remarks
All-time
every call on file
Probability
the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Appearances and settled record

latest 12

Our transcript counts matched how 79 of 80 settled words resolved (98.8%). How we check.

Recent appearances and how their listed words settled
DateAppearanceTextWordsSettledOur count agreed
Jun 23, 2026Earnings call FY26 Q4Speaker-labelled transcript126 yes · 6 no12/12 (100%)
Mar 19, 2026Earnings call FY26 Q3Speaker-labelled transcript125 yes · 7 no12/12 (100%)
Dec 18, 2025Earnings call FY26 Q2Speaker-labelled transcript2411 yes · 13 no23/24 (96%)
Sep 18, 2025Earnings call FY26 Q1Speaker-labelled transcript1713 yes · 4 no17/17 (100%)
Jun 24, 2025Earnings call FY25 Q4Speaker-labelled transcript0––
Mar 20, 2025Earnings call FY25 Q3Speaker-labelled transcript1510 yes · 5 no15/15 (100%)
Dec 19, 2024Earnings call FY25 Q2Speaker-labelled transcript0––
Sep 19, 2024Earnings call FY25 Q1Speaker-labelled transcript0––
Jun 25, 2024Earnings call FY24 Q4Speaker-labelled transcript0––
Mar 21, 2024Earnings call FY24 Q3Speaker-labelled transcript0––
Dec 19, 2023Earnings call FY24 Q2Speaker-labelled transcript0––
Sep 20, 2023Earnings call FY24 Q1Speaker-labelled transcript0––

Citeparrot.markets, “FedEx (FDX): earnings call word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/FDX (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/fedex · words: /api/v1/history?entity=fedex · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP