Will “Red” be said on Lemonade Stand next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Red” was said on Lemonade Stand in 13 of 19 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 27, 2026 (68%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 63% (n=19, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 2, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 6.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- anyone
- Market
- 75¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Lemonade Stand
Red
- Probability
- 63% · n=19
- Settled
- 13/19 (68%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
2 counted.
…worked in marketing, uh, everyone was way more afraid of getting caught red-handed on FDC violations and they would, you know, make sure to push…
…sorry to say don't care about like a colorist right like they don't care if the the the reds are perfect and the blues are
Counts: anyone
3 counted.
…not. Yeah. Do you know what the the output is on the Red Sea side? Yeah. Like how much does that play a part right…
…the years they're currently being investigated on, the ones I've highlighted in red here, though it's possible this has continued in the years on the…
Counts: anyone
1 counted.
…We'll do the facts first. So if you pull this up, Perry, these 12 states, I colored them in red, but they are blue states.
Every settled listing
newest first · 19 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Red |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | 13 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 27, 2026 | Red | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Red” said on Lemonade Stand?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Red” was said on Lemonade Stand in 13 of 19 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 27, 2026 (68%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Red” is said on Lemonade Stand next time?
- 63%, from settlement history (n=19). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Lemonade Stand: ‘Red’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/lemonade-stand/words/red (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=lemonade-stand&word=red · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=lemonade-stand&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP