Will “Defence” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Defence” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 10, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 77¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Defence
- Probability
- 55% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 4 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 4 in Q&A); 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Lady comes here every week and poses as the world-leading authority on defence. She talked about interviews. I recall a recent interview she gave about…
…not sound like she is in control of her own policy on defence. Then, under questioning from Mr Ferrari on LBC, she said “you’ve got…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Defence” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Defence” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 10, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Defence” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Defence’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/defence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=defence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP