Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks to NCAA National Champions?
Polymarket What will Trump say during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?
Markets
47 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympic / Olympics | Yes | 57%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Saban | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bowling | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| College 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tennis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Executive Order | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golf / Golfer | Yes | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Gold | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 35%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 66%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 60%n=160 from settlement history | – |
| Oval Office | No | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 57%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 55%n=231 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 54%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 54%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 50%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe / Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NFL / NBA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hot / Hottest | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NIL | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 46%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| SCORE Act | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 45%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 45%n=204 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 43%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 42%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Common Sense | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Coach 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gene / Genetic / Genetics | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| March Madness | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MVP | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Where is 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kickoff | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | No | 37%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald / McDonald's | No | 37%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Draft / Drafted | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Good Looking | No | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| NBA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| GOAT / Greatest Of All Time | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 31%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 31%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 27%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 10%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=343 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26APR21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP