Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 17, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the UK State Banquet?
Polymarket What will Trump say at the UK state banquet on September 17?
Markets
42 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beautiful | Yes | 55%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest country | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Winston / Churchill | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Churchill | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| King / Queen 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Camilla | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Culture / Cultural | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prince / Princess | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ancestry / Heritage | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | No | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Freedom | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| D-Day / Normandy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Legacy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Historic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rule of Law | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Atlantic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Free World | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Toast 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| United States 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy / Democratic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Buckingham Palace | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Carriage | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Commonwealth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| London | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Partner / Partnership | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Platinum Jubilee / 70 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Queen Elizabeth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scotland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starmer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World War | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Security | No | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Defense / Security | No | 37%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Ally / Alliance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sovereignty | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| God / Evil | No | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| God | No | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nazi / Hitler | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 11%n=120 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-the-uk-state-banquet-on-september-17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP