Remarks transcript, Jun 15, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In remarks on Jun 15, 2026, Donald Trump said 9 of the 37 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 36 of 37 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
37 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 36 of 37- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 10 | 13 | ✓ | 64%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | 77%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 52%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| UFC / Fight | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 40%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 39%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 47%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Zelensky | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 67%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 62%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 59%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=185 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=268 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 46%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Eight Wars / Eighth War | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Nine Wars / Ninth War | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Pakistan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Early | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| G7 | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Erdogan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=164 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 31%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Knicks | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | 26%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 24%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 4%n=394 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
72 passagesOfficial transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Prepared remarks
Hello, everybody.
Hello, how are you?
Questions and answers
Hello.
Maybe a handshake, Mr. President?
Yes.
So I want to congratulate the President. Last night, Ciryl Gane won the fight against a great fighter. Supposed to be unbeatable. And that was—Ciryl is from France. Did you watch the fight?
Yes.
That was——
Not in direct, but I saw it this morning.
That was a great fight. It was a great evening at the White House.
We're very proud of Ciryl.
Okay.
Please.
I will say a few words in French——
Yes. Sure.
——and she will——
I want to say—I mean, to commend President Trump for celebration yesterday and to welcome President Trump and Ministers and his team for being here in Évian for the G–7.
I think yesterday was signed a very important agreement: a peace deal with Iran. And it's a very important one because, first, it will fix the nuclear issue, and it's a very important matter for peace for the whole world.
And it will reopen Hormuz. It will provide peace in Lebanon. And so, we are ready to take our fair share of the burden and be part of the commitment of the international community in order to support this deal.
Good.
And we will discuss about that together and with colleagues later on. But it's a very important step towards peace but, as well, for global economy.
We will have the occasion to discuss about the war in Ukraine in order to reengage together and negotiate a good and solid peace and sustainable peace. And President Zelenskyy will be with us as well tomorrow.
And obviously, we will have the occasion to bring this G–7 to speak about a series of issues—from rare earth, critical minerals, trade, et cetera—where we have to build convergence amongst the G–7 members.
And it will be the occasion for us to celebrate the 250 years of independence for——
Yes.
——for the U.S.
And Versailles is a good place because this is where the King and his Minister of Foreign Affairs at the time did support the U.S. during—[ inaudible ]——
That's right.
——but as well prepared what we called the Paris Treaty in 1783, which was on the final point——
That's right.
——of this war.
So it's a great honor and a great pleasure to have you, Mr. President, in Évian and Paris.
Thank you. Thank you.
So, Emmanuel has been a special friend of mine. We've had a fantastic relationship. We've worked on many deals together.
I'm very happy to say very—well, it's signed. The deal's all signed. And the Strait is already partially opened. As you know, they're doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they've already found, but it's essentially—ships are starting to go out now. On Friday, it will be completely opened.
We got along very well with Iran. It's a different set of leaders. As you know, the first set is gone; the second set is gone. And we found the third set to be very smart. Strong. Very smart. But we ended up making a deal.
I felt badly that we had to go back on the attack for 2 nights, and I thought a third, but we made it before that happened. But I think a lot of great things are going to happen in the Middle East right now.
And very importantly, the oil is plummeting down, and the stock market is shooting up like a rocket today—like, record kind of numbers. And the oil has taken its biggest plunge. And we're into the low numbers. Not quite back yet, Kevin, to the extent, but we're getting close to the numbers we were before it all started.
And the main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. They fully agreed to that, with strong policing powers. And they won't have a nuclear weapon, which is what it was all about, because they probably would have used it if they had it.
So we had two big moments. When they terminated the JCPOA—that was the Obama deal—the Barack Hussein Obama deal. And when I terminated that, it was very important, because it was a road to a nuclear weapon.
It was a horrible deal for the United States. It was a deal where billions of dollars was given to Iran. It was a deal where $1.7 billion in cash was put on a Boeing seven—well, not a seven—757 I guess, right? But it was put on a big, beautiful Boeing 757. They needed a Boeing 747, to be honest with you, because it was a lot of cash. One point seven billion was taken out of the banks and given to Iran. And, on top of that, tens of billions of dollars was paid. So they tried to bribe them to make a deal, and that didn't work. It never works.
And we've done a great job. And hopefully, it's going to be a good relationship and we're going to get along. And if we don't, we go back to where we started, but I don't think that's going to be necessary.
The Iran deal that we made is going to bring a lot of success to the world, because the oil was really clogged up there for a while. He would call me on occasion, say: "Come on, please. Let's go. The oil prices". But the oil is coming way down. So I'm very honored by it. I want to thank you for your help. You've always been a help. And it's an honor to be with you.
We had a very good conversation yesterday with President Zelenskyy and President Putin. And I see, maybe, we can do something there. I really do. I think they're both open to it. So, you know, now that this is finished, we're going to be focusing on that, see if we can get that one done.
Twenty-five thousand people a month are dying, mostly soldiers. And that shouldn't happen. But I had two very good conversations yesterday. We'll be talking about it.
And we had a really exciting—I think, maybe, one of the most incredible evenings in the history of the White House. We had an evening last night with the fighters. And I was very happy. I called last night—very late last night to congratulate you because, in the heavyweight division, a French fighter won. And I don't know, is that maybe more important than the World Cup? To some people, it might be, right? [ Laughter ] That's—to some people, it might be.
You have a good team in the World Cup.
Yes.
Very good team. But you have good fighters too. And you're a great country. And it's an honor to be with you. Thank you very much.
Hey——
Thank you.
Hey, sir. Are you going to try to attend the signing ceremony on Friday?
Well, it depends. J.D.'s coming in for it. He was originally going to do it. I'll probably be gone by then. We're having dinner in a day and a half, right? We're going to be staying quite late. So I may be involved. I may not. But J.D. was coming in for that specifically.
Thank you.
Text of the Memorandum of Understanding on the Cessation of Hostilities Between the U.S. and Iran/Commercial Transit Through the Strait of Hormuz
Mr. President, when will the text of the MOU be released?
I think pretty soon. I would say—I mean, I want it to be released, because it's a very powerful document. It's not like the Obama document, which was just a terrible document. This is a very powerful document, and I want it to be released. So, probably pretty soon. I would say after—sometime after Friday.
Because the Strait opens complete—it's open now, but it opens completely. We'll have all the mines knocked out, or for the most part. We have a lot of lanes right now already.
Mr. President——
So I think sometime—I think sometime in the very near future, yes.
Mr. President, does this—does the deal involve any sanctions relief for Iran? When would that go into effect?
No, it doesn't. Well, they have to—it's really a behavioral thing. If they do what they're supposed to do, that starts taking effect.
Mr. President, what do you expect from France and European countries——
Well, I would love them to do that.
——about——
I don't think we're going to need much help, because we have an agreement where it's going to be open. And it's toll-free. We had a little argument on that. It's toll-free.
So I don't think we're going to need much help, but I don't think it's a bad idea to have a ship or two up here from a few countries. You'd be a great country to do it, because you never know what happens. But I think it's going to be open, and I think it's going to be free sailing.
We do want to see if we can straighten out the Lebanon—the Lebanon thing, because it just seems to just never end. And that's a mini version of what we were doing. But—and it should not be tough. It should not be tough.
So Hizballah—we have to have a little talk with them.
That's good.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-06-15:remarks-bilateral-france · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-06-15:remarks-bilateral-france · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP