Donald Trump: Rally, Jul 3, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Iowa State Fairgrounds speech on July 3?
Markets
39 words · 28 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 64%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 58%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age | Yes | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Radical | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trans / Transgender | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Patriot | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 51%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear weapon | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 49%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Amendment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Caucus | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corn | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joni / Ernst | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kim / Reynolds | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Religion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Washington | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| God / Hell 10+ times | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 35+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | Yes | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Chuck / Grassley | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Birthday | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | Yes | 28%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 55%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Warrior | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autopen | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hawkeye | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Leak | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight / Hammer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Disgrace | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Slavery | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25JUL03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP