Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 28, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his dinner with the UK King & Queen?
Markets
25 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | Yes | 60%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 55%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 55%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| 1776 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 60%n=163 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 55%n=235 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 53%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 52%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 50%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 48%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 46%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Movie Star | No | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Keir / Starmer | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 43%n=209 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 43%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Elizabeth | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Palace | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Churchill | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 38%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 38%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 36%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | No | 31%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 31%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=349 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26APR28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP