Donald Trump: Press conference, Apr 7, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the bilateral presser with Netanyahu today?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Netanyahu events today?
Markets
32 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Reciprocal | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President Xi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Houthi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 61%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iron dome / Missile defense shield | No | 48%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Howard / Lutnick | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Boom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gaza 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Holocaust | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICC / International Criminal Court | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Qatar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gaza | No | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Jew / Jewish | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| 17 percent | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bilateral | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Diplomat / Diplomacy / Diplomatic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Humanitarian Aid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jerusalem | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Middle East | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Negotiation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obvious subject | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Security | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hostage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 6%n=75 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25APR07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP