Donald Trump: Remarks, Aug 19, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Next Bilateral Meeting with a Foreign Leader in the Oval Office?
Markets
37 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 77%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 51%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 51%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 47%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 44%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 43%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 41%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Moscow | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 32%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 32%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | Yes | 26%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Security | Yes | 24%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 75%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 72%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | 66%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | No | 58%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Dead | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Guarantee | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Missle | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kiev | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Gaza | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Withdraw / Withdrawal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Donetsk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Surrender / Surrendering | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Donbas | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crimea | No | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 29%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 25%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 22%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 22%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration | No | 20%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBILATERALMENTION-26JAN29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP