Donald Trump: Press briefing, Aug 11, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Press Conference on Crime and Beautification?
Polymarket What will Trump say during DC Crime Press Conference on August 11?
Markets
39 words · 23 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 70%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful | Yes | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Radical | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 50%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 49%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 49%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexican / Mexico | Yes | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 46%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Immigration and Customs Enforcement | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Graffiti | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | Yes | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Low IQ / Low-IQ | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crime 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thug / Cartel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | Yes | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE | Yes | 32%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 44%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| CDC / Centers for Disease Control | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Make America Safe Again | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mr. Nice Guy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Renovation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subway | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tent | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insane Asylum | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Big Balls / Coristine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federalize | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| CNN | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion | No | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 36%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| MSDNC | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=106 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25AUG11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP