Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 7, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Honors Medal Dinner?
Markets
20 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 67%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 60%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 58%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / Olympic | Yes | 46%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 67%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 65%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 60%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Energy | No | 55%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | 46%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 46%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 40%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 38%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 34%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Rainbow | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 30%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Bone | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 20%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 9%n=198 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP