Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 28, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his greeting remarks to the UK King & Queen?
Markets
20 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | Yes | 60%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| King | Yes | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Churchill | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 60%n=163 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 56%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 54%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 53%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 52%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 52%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 51%n=146 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 48%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Keir / Starmer | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 43%n=209 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 43%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Palace | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockade | No | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 38%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 31%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=349 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP