Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his dinner with the Netherlands King & Queen?
Markets
22 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | No | 60%n=157 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 56%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 55%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 55%n=227 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 53%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 52%n=142 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of Mine | No | 51%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 50%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Europe / European | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 48%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 47%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 45%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 44%n=198 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | No | 42%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| JD Vance | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 32%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 32%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 30%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 24%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 22%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=337 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26APR13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP