Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during Executive Order Signing on March 31?
Markets
23 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 50%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 50%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 4+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear 4+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Chicago | Yes | 43%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 4+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 41%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Pool | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | 35%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Strait / Hormuz | Yes | 34%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 23%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 58%n=154 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | No | 54%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 49%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Job 10+ times | No | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 44%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 43%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Easter 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Boots on the ground | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 38%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 36%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 8%n=327 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-executive-order-signing-on-march-31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP