Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 13, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during dinner with Dutch royals on April 13?
Markets
20 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melania | No | 66%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 61%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 53%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 53%n=142 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 48%n=227 from settlement history | – |
| World War II | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Friend / Ally 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nazi | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| America / US 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Amsterdam | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dike / Sea | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hague | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liberation / Liberated / Liberating | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rembrandt / Vermeer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Salute | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hundred / Thousand 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Adams | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 28%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 24%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 8%n=337 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-dinner-with-dutch-royals-on-april-13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP