Donald Trump: Remarks, May 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at the Congressional Picnic?
Polymarket What will Trump and Melania say during the Congressional Picnic?
Markets
45 words · 25 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | Yes | 64%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 63%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 58%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=147 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 3+ times | Yes | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 53%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 53%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 51%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Honey / Darling | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Barron / Genius | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 250 / 250th | Yes | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 44%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 44%n=234 from settlement history | – |
| Kid / Child 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 43%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| Thank 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Be Best / Foster | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 40%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Future | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Force | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 33%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 30%n=151 from settlement history | – |
| King | No | 57%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 53%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 52%n=178 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 51%n=255 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama | No | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 47%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 42%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 42%n=124 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 42%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Warsh | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Movie Star | No | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 35%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Rebuilt / Rebuild | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 34%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 32%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 27%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 24%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Hantavirus / Virus | No | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 3%n=374 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-and-melania-say-during-the-congressional-picnic · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP