Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Health Care Affordability Event?
Polymarket What will Trump say during the Health Care Affordability event?
Markets
54 words · 26 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | Yes | 65%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 61%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 59%n=162 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 55%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 54%n=233 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 54%n=131 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 50%n=144 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 45%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 44%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 43%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| FDA | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Bobby / Kennedy | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | Yes | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Go ahead 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 12+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Research and development / R&D | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cat | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRx | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Strait / Hormuz | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 34%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 34%n=128 from settlement history | – |
| Eli Lilly | Yes | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed | Yes | 18%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 56%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 51%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | No | 50%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 46%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 44%n=206 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 43%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 42%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| COVID / Pandemic | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Unaffordable Care Act | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kickback | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Psychedelic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hoax | No | 39%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 39%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Ozempic / Fat Shot / Fat Drug | No | 39%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 38%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Veteran | No | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| EU / European Union | No | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ozempic / Fat shot | No | 38%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Vaccine / Autism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| No No No | No | 37%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Obamacare | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA | No | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 30%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 25%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=345 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP