Donald Trump: Remarks, May 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his EPA Announcement?
Markets
31 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 62%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 59%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 54%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 52%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 52%n=145 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 50%n=256 from settlement history | – |
| Emission | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 45%n=236 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 42%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 40%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 32%n=153 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 32%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 30%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 30%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Bobby / Kennedy | No | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 54%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Green New Scam | No | 53%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 50%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| EV / Electric | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| CAFE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Data Center | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fluoride | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 38%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 36%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Solar | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Windmill | No | 36%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 34%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | 27%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 3%n=376 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP