Donald Trump: Interview, May 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Fox News interview?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Bret Baier interview?
Markets
41 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 68%n=144 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 64%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 61%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 61%n=251 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 59%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 56%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 54%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing / Plane | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 53%n=175 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Child | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Soybean / Farmer | Yes | 46%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| See what happens | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 41%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Strait / Hormuz | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chip / Ship | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 38%n=147 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | 25%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | 50%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 49%n=230 from settlement history | – |
| Spy / Spying | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Jensen | No | 43%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Jensen | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Eight Wars / Eighth War | No | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 40%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Jensen / Tim | No | 40%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| North Korea / Kim Jong Un | No | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Friend | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | 36%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| My Father / Fred | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 35%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 32%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| COVID / Pandemic | No | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 31%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 9%n=368 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-bret-baier-interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP